Discuss Full coverage · 13 →
T The Guardian· 21m

Family of Watford woman set alight ‘desperate for answers’ after attack

Appeal for information comes after Brenda Raymond, 80, was set on fire outside her flat on MondayThe family of an elderly woman who was set on fire outside a block of flats in Watford have said they are “desperate for answers”.Brenda Raymond, 80, was found set alight outside her flat on Caractacus Cottage View on Monda

Analysis

12 developments from 12 outlets in the past week.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Have you delayed care in the past year because of cost?

Forecast poll

Will federal courts permanently strike down Medicaid work requirement rules by the end of the year?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 44 →
P PBS· 21m

Alaska voters reject ballot measure seeking to repeal open primaries and ranked voting system

The ballot measure, decided as part of the Nov. 3 election, marked the second time in two years that voters have rejected attempts to overturn the system and revert to partisan primaries and to general elections in which just one candidate can be selected.

Analysis

Recent elections in Brazil, Israel, and Serbia have resulted in significant political shifts, including a presidential victory for Lula in Brazil and a deadlocked parliamentary outcome in Israel. These developments impact governance and stability in their respective regions, with ongoing concerns regarding election integrity and the peaceful transfer of power. Observers are now watching for the resolution of government formation in Israel and the legal and political fallout surrounding the post-election situation in Brazil.

12 stories 13 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

Should there be age limits for top elected offices?

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Discuss Full coverage · 43 →
T The Guardian· 21m

Mike Johnson: ‘Leaders have to take responsibility when things go wrong’

Republican House speaker not running for re-election contrasts sharply with president who avoids accountabilityIn his first interview since the midterm elections, the US House speaker, Mike Johnson, said that the Republican party’s crushing losses during the 3 November elections prompted his decision to step away from

Analysis

Recent reports confirm new Ebola cases in Nigeria and Kenya, while the ongoing outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has expanded to an eighth province. These developments raise concerns about regional public health preparedness and the potential for cross-border transmission. Observers are now monitoring how health authorities in affected nations manage containment efforts and border screenings to prevent further spread.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By February 28, 2027, how many countries other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo will have reported at least one laboratory-confirmed Ebola case linked to the current Congo outbreak?
One or two countries 45%
Three or four countries 35%
Five or more countries 21%

Poll

How much do you trust official health advice right now?

Poll

Should countries share outbreak data with the WHO even when it's politically awkward?

Discuss Full coverage · 19 →
P PBS· 21m

With shifting Iran rhetoric following U.S. elections, Trump leaves Middle East in limbo about path ahead

Trump's tonal shifts have only added to the uncertainty about what comes next in a war in which America's allies were not consulted before it was started but nonetheless struggle to deal with its economic ramifications.

Analysis

Diplomatic efforts are intensifying as officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan meet with Iranian leadership to prevent further escalation, while Qatari mediators work to restart direct U.S.-Iran negotiations. These developments occur amid ongoing military instability, including Houthi attacks in Yemen and reports of tanker strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, which threaten regional shipping and energy security. Observers are now watching for Iran's response to a letter from U.S. Vice President JD Vance and monitoring potential shifts in U.S. military strategy following recent Pentagon personnel changes.

12 stories 13 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States conduct a direct military strike against Iranian territory by March 1, 2027?
No US strike occurs 72%
Yes, US strike occurs 28%

Poll

If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, who should keep it open?

Poll

What is the best way to reduce the risk of a wider Middle East war?

Discuss Full coverage · 8 →
T The Guardian· 21m

Andreeva sweeps past Pegula to reach WTA Finals title match after hot-mic controversy

Russian teen beats American 6-3, 6-4 at Indian WellsFrench Open champion, 19, assures world No 2 rankingThe rise of Mirra Andreeva has seemed inevitable ever since she burst on to the tour as a precocious 15-year-old more than three years ago, but this week, six months after her maiden grand slam triumph at Roland Garr

Analysis

Russia and Ukraine have exchanged major drone and missile strikes while diplomatic tensions escalate between Kyiv and Washington, following President Trump's decision to waive new sanctions on Russia and his criticism of President Zelenskyy. These developments, alongside the restoration of full Starlink satellite speeds for Ukrainian forces, highlight the precarious nature of Ukraine's military and diplomatic support as winter approaches. Observers are now watching for the outcome of European Union summit discussions on continued aid and the potential resumption of US-mediated peace talks.

8 stories 8 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will Ukraine and Russia sign a formal ceasefire or peace agreement by April 15, 2027?
No formal agreement 72%
Agreement signed 28%

Poll

Should Western countries keep sending weapons to Ukraine?

Poll

Should frozen Russian assets be used to rebuild Ukraine?