Recent reports highlight a surge in extreme weather events, including devastating wildfires in Indonesia, deadly storms in the UK, and typhoons in Taiwan, which are disrupting daily life through school closures, power outages, and travel delays. These events coincide with scientific warnings that 96% of coral reefs face collapse and that global health is increasingly threatened by climate-linked heat and drought. Observers are now monitoring the potential for further policy shifts regarding environmental regulations and the ongoing global efforts to address rising emissions and temperature limits.
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How the odds moved
Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027?
Warmest year on record 20%Second warmest on record 41%Third warmest or lower 39%
No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.
What would move the odds
These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.
Possible · not happened45% chance
NOAA declares El Niño conditionsIf it happens:↑ Warmest year on record↓ Third warmest or lower
Will it happen by Jan 31?
Possible · not happened30% chance
October 2026 is warmest October recordedIf it happens:↑ Warmest year on record↓ Third warmest or lower
Will it happen by Jan 31?
Possible · not happened45% chance
WMO says 2026 tracking top twoIf it happens:↑ Warmest year on record↑ Second warmest on record↓ Third warmest or lower
Will it happen by Jan 31?
Possible · not happened40% chance
Jan–Nov 2026 ranks third or lowerIf it happens:↑ Third warmest or lower↓ Second warmest on record↓ Warmest year on record
Will it happen by Jan 31?
Started at 20% / 41% / 39% on Oct 19. Each event can fire once.
Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 31, 2027
Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027?
Warmest year on record
20%
Second warmest on record
41%
Third warmest or lower
39%
Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.
Discussion
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New forecast: Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027? Starting odds: Warmest year on record 20%, Second warmest on record 41%, Third warmest or lower 39%.