Oil and natural gas prices are surging globally as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine threaten supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt refinery operations. These rising energy costs are driving up fuel prices for consumers, fueling cost-of-living protests across Europe, and boosting record profits for major oil companies. Investors and policymakers are now closely monitoring whether diplomatic efforts to secure new supplies can stabilize markets or if further escalations will continue to constrain energy availability.
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Forecast poll
Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?
Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes–
Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.
How the odds moved
What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
Below $90 per barrel 30%$90 to $110 per barrel 37%Above $110 per barrel 34%
No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.
What would move the odds
These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.
Possible · not happened22% chance
Hormuz tanker traffic largely haltedIf it happens:↑ Above $110 per barrel↓ Below $90 per barrel
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened30% chance
Agreement to halt Hormuz shipping attacksIf it happens:↑ Below $90 per barrel↓ Above $110 per barrel
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened33% chance
OPEC+ announces large output increaseIf it happens:↑ Below $90 per barrel↓ Above $110 per barrel
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened40% chance
Ukrainian strike halts Russian oil exportsIf it happens:↑ Above $110 per barrel↓ Below $90 per barrel
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened28% chance
Brent settles above $120If it happens:↑ Above $110 per barrel↓ $90 to $110 per barrel↓ Below $90 per barrel
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened35% chance
Brent settles below $95 by year-endIf it happens:↑ Below $90 per barrel↓ Above $110 per barrel
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Started at 30% / 37% / 34% on Oct 17. Each event can fire once.
Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 15, 2027
What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
Below $90 per barrel
30%
$90 to $110 per barrel
37%
Above $110 per barrel
34%
Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.
Discussion
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New forecast: What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027? Starting odds: Below $90 per barrel 30%, $90 to $110 per barrel 37%, Above $110 per barrel 34%.