Analysis

4 developments from 4 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

4 stories 4 outlets

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Would you pay more for goods made in your own country?

Poll

Do tariffs on imports help or hurt your country overall?

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Poll

Should local zoning rules be loosened to allow more apartments?

Poll

What would do most to make housing affordable?

Analysis

Global fuel markets remain volatile as geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz drive up crude prices, while European leaders like Emmanuel Macron scramble to secure alternative diesel supplies to mitigate domestic cost-of-living protests. These supply disruptions and rising energy costs are fueling political unrest across Europe and causing localized fuel shortages in regions like Bali. Observers are now watching whether recent diplomatic efforts, including U.S. agreements to import Russian diesel, will effectively stabilize prices or if the current inflationary pressure on households and businesses will persist.

5 stories 5 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

Should the US ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports to help lower global fuel prices?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Analysis

Global election cycles are intensifying, with significant developments ranging from massive campaign spending in the U.S. midterms to legal battles over social media neutrality in Brazil and ballot integrity disputes in California. These events highlight growing tensions over election administration, the influence of big money and tech platforms, and the stability of democratic processes worldwide. Observers are now watching for the outcomes of upcoming runoff votes in Brazil and the impact of ongoing legal and political challenges on voter access and election integrity.

12 stories 13 outlets

1 story says getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Analysis

Character.ai has filed for bankruptcy following lawsuits alleging ties to teen suicides, CNN reports, and China says it will curb exports of technology, including AI, citing national security risks. For ordinary people, these stories show AI reaching into daily life, from the safety of chatbot services to entry-level jobs for young workers in India and the destruction of physical books scanned to train AI models. Watch the U.S.-China dialogues on AI safety and governance, which PBS reports have made progress, including on setting up a mechanism to notify each other of AI incidents that could threaten national security.

10 stories 10 outlets

2 stories say mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should the EU prioritize developing its own sovereign AI infrastructure over adopting existing US or Chinese models?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.