Analysis

Global oil and natural gas prices are surging as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war threaten critical supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure. These rising costs are driving up fuel prices for households, fueling political unrest across Europe, and boosting profits for major oil companies. Investors and consumers are now watching for further escalations in the Middle East and potential government interventions to stabilize energy supplies.

12 stories 12 outlets

4 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

How should governments respond to high fuel prices?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Analysis

Recent elections in Brazil, Israel, and Serbia have resulted in significant political shifts, including a presidential victory for Lula in Brazil and the ousting of Serbia's longtime leader, while Israel's election remains deadlocked. These outcomes impact global stability and domestic governance, with ongoing tensions in Brazil as the Bolsonaro family faces legal scrutiny and disputes over the election results. Observers are now watching for the formation of new governments in Israel and Serbia, as well as the potential influence of U.S. political involvement in upcoming midterm and Senate races.

12 stories 15 outlets

2 stories say getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Poll

Should there be age limits for top elected offices?

Analysis

12 developments from 13 outlets in the past week, including 1 official source. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

12 stories 13 outlets 1 primary source

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Analysis

Recent reports highlight a surge in scrutiny over federal immigration enforcement, including allegations of wrongful detentions of U.S. citizens and a death at a Georgia detention facility. These developments raise significant concerns regarding civil liberties and the treatment of individuals within the immigration system, impacting both citizens and foreign nationals. Observers are now watching for potential legal challenges, including a Supreme Court case regarding detention reversals and the ongoing impact of new policies targeting international students and deportation procedures.

7 stories 7 outlets

5 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should long-term undocumented residents have a path to legal status?

Poll

What should immigration policy prioritise?

Analysis

Recent developments highlight a growing tension between AI's rapid expansion and its societal costs, ranging from market volatility and cybersecurity vulnerabilities to public backlash against the environmental impact of data centers. These events underscore the increasing scrutiny of AI's influence on national security, political discourse, and personal safety, as governments and communities push for greater oversight. Moving forward, observers are tracking how international regulatory efforts, investment restrictions, and local opposition to infrastructure projects will shape the future of the AI industry.

10 stories 10 outlets

2 stories say getting better

Reported by several outlets

Poll

How should governments regulate advanced AI?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.