Discuss Full coverage · 11 →
C CNBC· 1d

Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates this week — but stay hawkish: CNBC survey

All survey respondents said they expect the BOJ to set the stage for a rate hike in December or January, as inflation and wages continue to rise.

Analysis

11 developments from 11 outlets in the past week, including 1 official source. Recent evidence leans mixed.

11 stories 11 outlets 1 primary source

1 story says mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 3 →
C CNBC· 15h

Meta- and Google-backed Jio Platforms’ shares soar over 21% on trading debut after record IPO

Jio had offered 270 million shares in the IPO priced at 1,119 rupees apiece, raising 302 billion rupees ($3.2 billion) in the country's largest-ever IPO.

Analysis

India's economic landscape is marked by a record-breaking IPO debut for Jio Platforms alongside significant regulatory actions, including FSSAI notices to major food companies and new housing loan limits for urban cooperative banks in Tamil Nadu. These developments impact consumers through potential changes in product labeling and increased access to credit, while state-level initiatives like the new robotics park in Uttar Pradesh signal a push for industrial growth. Investors and citizens should monitor ongoing legal challenges to privacy laws and the evolving public discourse regarding the environmental sustainability of India's rapidly expanding data center market.

3 stories 3 outlets

2 stories say getting better, 1 story says mixed

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will India and the United States sign a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement by March 31, 2027?
No agreement signed 61%
Agreement signed 39%

Poll

What should India's government focus on first?

Forecast poll

Will the Maharashtra government notify the bilingual hospital rate-list rule in the Official Gazette by 2026-01-31?

Forecast · closes Dec 17
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 4 →
C CNBC· 21h

As holiday shopping approaches, seasonal hiring gives 'mixed signals,' experts say

Companies have posted more seasonal jobs in 2026 than in 2025, boosted by non-retail jobs. Major retailers are, instead, relying on permanent staff.

Analysis

4 developments from 5 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

4 stories 5 outlets ↓ Getting better

2 stories say getting better, 1 story says mixed

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
4.2% to 4.5% 48%
4.1% or lower 30%
4.6% or higher 23%

Poll

How secure does your job feel right now?

Forecast poll

Will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report a national unemployment rate of 4.5% or higher in a jobs report released by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Jan 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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C CNBC· 15h

Oil prices rise as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian refinery raise supply worries

Oil prices climbed Wednesday as investors weighed the prospect of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

Analysis

Oil prices have surged as escalating tensions in the Middle East, including reported Iranian naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz and potential U.S. strikes, threaten global supply routes. These rising energy costs are fueling cost-of-living protests and political unrest across Europe, prompting leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron to secure emergency diesel deals from Gulf nations. Markets will continue to monitor the stability of the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of ongoing diplomatic efforts to stabilize fuel supplies.

7 stories 8 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

How should governments respond to high fuel prices?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 6 →
P PBS· 21h

School principal documents Indonesia's worst wildfires in a decade

Indonesia is battling its worst wildfires in more than a decade, made worse by El Niño. Many were deliberately set to clear land for farming, including palm oil plantations. More than 12,000 schools across Indonesia have closed because of the toxic haze. Nathaniel Undas, a school principal and photographer, has been do

Analysis

Extreme weather events, including severe wildfires in Indonesia, cyclones in India, and storms in the UK and Taiwan, are causing widespread disruption to infrastructure, travel, and public health. Experts are increasingly calling for global warming to be treated as a health emergency as research highlights the escalating risks to ecosystems like coral reefs and human safety. Moving forward, observers are tracking the impact of shifting environmental policies on global emissions targets and the growing necessity for adaptation in sectors like aviation and housing.

6 stories 6 outlets ↑ Getting worse

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027?
Second warmest on record 41%
Third warmest or lower 39%
Warmest year on record 20%

Poll

Should new homes be banned in high flood- or fire-risk areas?

Poll

Who should pay most for climate damage?