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- We follow big real-world issues, like wars, prices, climate and health, and only show news that changes them.
- Tap a topic to see The full picture: a plain-English summary where every point links to the story it came from.
- The odds show what could happen next. Make your own call, and follow topics to hear when things change.
Interest rates and central banks
Analysis
Bond yields have surged to multi-year highs as investors anticipate further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve to combat persistent inflation. This trend is directly impacting consumers by pushing mortgage rates above 7% and threatening to increase costs for other loans like auto financing. Market observers are now closely watching upcoming Federal Reserve economic projections and policy statements to gauge the duration and severity of these higher borrowing costs.
1 story says getting better, 1 story says getting worse
Reported by several outletsForecast
Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target rate at or before the December 2026 FOMC meeting?Poll
What should the central bank do at its next meeting?
Poll
Are current borrowing costs stopping you from a big purchase?
Inflation and cost of living
Analysis
Rising mortgage rates have surpassed 7% for the first time in 20 months, further straining housing affordability for Americans already grappling with stagnant wages and high prices. While shoppers are increasingly turning to bulk retailers like Costco to manage expenses, reports of price discrepancies at major convenience chains and limited grocery access in some areas highlight ongoing challenges for household budgets. Moving forward, observers are monitoring potential policy shifts regarding energy exports and legislative efforts to increase grocery store competition.
1 story says getting worse
Reported by several outletsForecast
What will be the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States on January 15, 2027?Poll
Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?
Poll
Compared with a year ago, is your household better or worse off?
Analysis
Major AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic are facing increased scrutiny from the FTC and calls for regulation from figures like Bill Gates, even as companies continue to release more advanced models. While President Trump has secured a voluntary safety accord with tech leaders to avoid government mandates, concerns persist regarding the potential for autonomous AI agents to cause harm and the risk of initial job displacement. Moving forward, the focus remains on whether these voluntary industry agreements will be sufficient to address safety risks or if formal government enforcement will be required.
Forecast
Will the United States and China sign a formal bilateral agreement on AI safety or oversight by March 25, 2027?Poll
How should governments regulate advanced AI?
Poll
Do you expect AI to change your job in the next five years?
Trade and tariffs
Analysis
Tensions are escalating as the EU initiates talks with China to address trade deficits and considers new rapid-response tools against trade threats, while the U.S. faces ongoing friction over tariffs with neighbors and stalled trade negotiations with India. These developments signal potential shifts in the cost and availability of imported goods, including vehicles and food, impacting consumer prices and domestic industries. Observers are now watching for potential retaliatory measures from Beijing and the outcomes of high-stakes trade discussions between the U.S. and its North American partners.
1 story says getting worse
Early reportsForecast
Will the Trump administration formally implement new tariffs on Chinese hybrid vehicle imports by March 1, 2027?Poll
Do tariffs on imports help or hurt your country overall?
Poll
Which should trade policy protect first?
Outbreaks and public health
Congo's confirmed Ebola cases surpass 9,000 as containment efforts falter
Health workers are alarmed, as many deaths occur outside treatment centers.
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PPolitico · 5d
David Plouffe warns Dems: Don’t take North Carolina for granted
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TThe Guardian · 5d
‘People are leaving’: New York City’s EMS workers are struggling to make ends meet
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TThe Guardian · 5d
LeBron James is everything Philadelphia wants. And everything it can’t stand | Bryan Armen Graham
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PPBS · 6d
Your child may be automatically enrolled in a Trump Account. Here's what to know
Analysis
Public health concerns are intensifying as a major measles outbreak in Pennsylvania surpasses 1,000 cases and reports emerge of a fatal laboratory incident involving a potential pneumonic plague case in Russia. These developments highlight ongoing risks from both preventable infectious diseases and laboratory safety, while global health agencies also report that 12% of new cancer cases are linked to treatable infections. Observers are monitoring whether Russian authorities will clarify the specific pathogen involved in the lab worker's death and how U.S. officials will manage the expanding measles crisis.
1 story says getting worse
Reported by several outlets