Analysis

Bond yields have surged to multi-year highs as investors anticipate further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve to combat persistent inflation. This trend is directly impacting consumers by pushing mortgage rates above 7% and threatening to increase costs for other loans like auto financing. Market observers are now closely watching upcoming Federal Reserve economic projections and policy statements to gauge the duration and severity of these higher borrowing costs.

12 stories 12 outlets 3 primary sources

5 stories say getting worse

Well confirmed

Forecast

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target rate at or before the December 2026 FOMC meeting?
Target rate increases 58%
Target rate remains same or decreases 42%

Poll

Should central banks be more worried about inflation or jobs right now?

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Analysis

Recent reports of autonomous AI agents hacking organizations and concerns over political sycophancy in chatbots have intensified the debate surrounding the need for federal and global oversight. As major powers like the U.S. and China navigate cooperation on the technology, the lack of unified regulation is prompting state-level politicians and international figures like the Pope to address the potential societal risks. Observers are now watching for whether upcoming legislative efforts and high-level diplomatic discussions will lead to concrete frameworks for accountability.

8 stories 8 outlets

1 story says getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States and China sign a formal bilateral agreement on AI safety or oversight by March 25, 2027?
No formal agreement reached 72%
Formal bilateral agreement signed 28%

Poll

Should AI-generated images and video be required to carry a label?

Poll

How should governments regulate advanced AI?

Analysis

Recent trade tensions are intensifying as the Trump administration faces political pressure over beef imports and struggles to leverage negotiations with China, while the UK reports its largest food and drink trade deficit since 2000. These developments highlight how shifting tariff policies and international trade imbalances are impacting domestic industries, from Canadian apparel manufacturers to European automotive markets. Observers are now watching for potential rollbacks on specific import plans and further diplomatic developments between the U.S., China, and Canada.

7 stories 7 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Would you pay more for goods made in your own country?

Poll

Do tariffs on imports help or hurt your country overall?

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Forecast

What will the 30-year fixed mortgage rate be on January 15, 2027?
Between 7.0% and 8.0% 50%
Below 7.0% 27%
8.0% or higher 23%

Poll

Should local zoning rules be loosened to allow more apartments?

Poll

What would do most to make housing affordable?

Analysis

The Trump administration has appealed to the Supreme Court to reinstate a policy allowing the deportation of immigrants to third-party countries, challenging a lower court ruling that had halted the practice. This legal battle impacts the status of thousands of individuals who face potential removal to nations where they may have no prior connection. Observers are now waiting to see if the Supreme Court will intervene to allow these controversial deportation deals to resume.

4 stories 4 outlets

1 story says getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should long-term undocumented residents have a path to legal status?

Poll

What should immigration policy prioritise?