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Analysis
Global energy markets remain volatile as shipping costs surge due to tanker shortages and geopolitical tensions, while governments in the U.S. and France implement emergency measures like diesel releases and tax adjustments to curb rising fuel prices. Despite these interventions, concerns persist regarding energy security in Europe and the long-term impact of U.S. policy shifts on fuel efficiency and export restrictions. Observers are now monitoring potential diplomatic developments between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the stability of global supply chains amid ongoing regional conflicts.
1 story says getting worse
Reported by several outletsForecast
Will the European Union report a diesel supply shortage or implement emergency rationing by January 15, 2027?Poll
Should your country produce more of its own oil and gas?
Poll
How should governments respond to high fuel prices?
Inflation and cost of living
Analysis
Rising mortgage rates have surpassed 7% for the first time in 20 months, further straining housing affordability for Americans already grappling with stagnant wages and high prices. While shoppers are increasingly turning to bulk retailers like Costco to manage expenses, reports of price discrepancies at major convenience chains and limited grocery access in some areas highlight ongoing challenges for household budgets. Moving forward, observers are monitoring potential policy shifts regarding energy exports and legislative efforts to increase grocery store competition.
2 stories say getting worse
Reported by several outletsForecast
What will be the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States on January 15, 2027?Poll
What should be the main tool to bring prices down?
Poll
Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?
Interest rates and central banks
Analysis
Bond yields have surged to multi-year highs as investors anticipate further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve to combat persistent inflation. This trend is directly impacting consumers by pushing mortgage rates above 7% and threatening to increase costs for other loans like auto financing. Market observers are now closely watching upcoming Federal Reserve economic projections and policy statements to gauge the duration and severity of these higher borrowing costs.
1 story says getting worse
Reported by several outletsForecast
Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target rate at or before the December 2026 FOMC meeting?Poll
Should central banks be more worried about inflation or jobs right now?
Poll
What should the central bank do at its next meeting?
Immigration and borders
Analysis
The US Supreme Court has temporarily allowed the Trump administration to resume deporting migrants to third countries, a policy UN experts warn is increasing risks of rights abuses and torture. This shift impacts thousands of migrants who may now be sent to nations where they have no existing ties, while US lawmakers simultaneously introduce legislation to limit ICE's detention and arrest powers. Observers are now watching for further legal rulings on the legality of these third-country deportations and the potential political fallout for officials facing pressure over these enforcement operations.
1 story says getting worse
Early reportsForecast
Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue a ruling or stay that allows the Trump administration to proceed with third-country deportations by March 15, 2027?Last move: Supreme Court grants emergency stay · Sep 30 ago
Poll
Should long-term undocumented residents have a path to legal status?
Poll
What should immigration policy prioritise?
Analysis
Major AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic are facing increased scrutiny from the FTC and calls for regulation from figures like Bill Gates, even as companies continue to release more advanced models. While President Trump has secured a voluntary safety accord with tech leaders to avoid government mandates, concerns persist regarding the potential for autonomous AI agents to cause harm and the risk of initial job displacement. Moving forward, the focus remains on whether these voluntary industry agreements will be sufficient to address safety risks or if formal government enforcement will be required.
1 story says getting better
Reported by several outlets