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C CNBC· 21h

Fed holds rates steady despite concerns over inflation

Two of the 12 Federal Open Market Committee voters dissented from the decision. Both wanted to raise rates by a quarter percentage point.

+1 more sources

Analysis

12 developments from 13 outlets in the past week, including 1 official source. Recent evidence leans mixed.

12 stories 13 outlets 1 primary source

1 story says mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 9h

AP report: FDA scientists opposed the Trump administration's move to ease peptides access

A plan to give people in the United States easier access to unproven peptide drugs favored by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was opposed by most Food and Drug Administration scientific staff members, who had limited input in drafting the policy, according to six people familiar with its development.

Analysis

11 developments from 11 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

11 stories 11 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Should the government negotiate prices for more prescription drugs?

Poll

What is the biggest problem with healthcare where you live?

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P PBS· 9h

4 takeaways from Israel's inconclusive election

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is down but not out.

Analysis

Recent elections in Brazil, Israel, and Serbia have produced significant political shifts, with voters in Brazil electing Lula da Silva and Serbian voters ousting long-time leader Aleksandar Vucic, while Israel faces a deadlock. These outcomes impact global stability and governance, as seen in the flight of the Bolsonaro family to the U.S. and ongoing disputes over election integrity and ballot processing. Observers are now watching for the formation of new governments in Israel and Brazil, as well as the legal and political fallout surrounding contested election results and international relations.

12 stories 13 outlets

3 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

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P PBS· 9h

American taxpayers' bill for Iran war grows to estimated $47.1 billion

The Republican president has said new strikes on Iran are an option after the midterms and is sending more military resources to the Middle East, despite initially promising Americans a military campaign that would last only a matter of weeks.

Analysis

Diplomatic efforts are underway in Tehran as Saudi, Turkish, and Pakistani officials meet to prevent further escalation, even as fighting continues in Yemen and drone attacks target Saudi infrastructure. The ongoing conflict has reportedly cost the U.S. military $47.1 billion, with oil prices fluctuating amid concerns over energy supply security. Observers are now monitoring whether these high-level talks can de-escalate regional tensions or if the conflict will continue to impact global markets and U.S. military spending.

12 stories 12 outlets

2 stories say getting worse, 1 story says mixed

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States conduct a direct military strike against Iranian territory by March 1, 2027?
No US strike occurs 72%
Yes, US strike occurs 28%

Poll

What is the best way to reduce the risk of a wider Middle East war?

Poll

Should the US take military action if Iran moves closer to a nuclear weapon?

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P PBS· 1d

School principal documents Indonesia's worst wildfires in a decade

Indonesia is battling its worst wildfires in more than a decade, made worse by El Niño. Many were deliberately set to clear land for farming, including palm oil plantations. More than 12,000 schools across Indonesia have closed because of the toxic haze. Nathaniel Undas, a school principal and photographer, has been do

Analysis

Extreme weather events, including severe wildfires in Indonesia, cyclones in India, and storms in the UK and Taiwan, are causing widespread disruption to infrastructure, travel, and public health. Experts are increasingly calling for global warming to be treated as a health emergency as research highlights the escalating risks to ecosystems like coral reefs and human safety. Moving forward, observers are tracking the impact of shifting environmental policies on global emissions targets and the growing necessity for adaptation in sectors like aviation and housing.

6 stories 6 outlets ↑ Getting worse

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027?
Second warmest on record 41%
Third warmest or lower 39%
Warmest year on record 20%

Poll

Should new homes be banned in high flood- or fire-risk areas?

Poll

Who should pay most for climate damage?