Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week, including 2 official sources.

1 stories 1 outlets 2 primary sources
Early reports

Poll

Should the Federal Reserve prioritize cutting the federal funds rate now to support jobs, or hold it until inflation nears 2%?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Analysis

Character.ai has filed for bankruptcy following lawsuits alleging ties to teen suicides, CNN reports, and China says it will curb exports of technology, including AI, citing national security risks. For ordinary people, these stories show AI reaching into daily life, from the safety of chatbot services to entry-level jobs for young workers in India and the destruction of physical books scanned to train AI models. Watch the U.S.-China dialogues on AI safety and governance, which PBS reports have made progress, including on setting up a mechanism to notify each other of AI incidents that could threaten national security.

2 stories 2 outlets ↕ Mixed

2 stories say mixed

Early reports

Poll

Should the EU prioritize developing its own sovereign AI infrastructure over adopting existing US or Chinese models?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Poll

Should the government negotiate prices for more prescription drugs?

Poll

What is the biggest problem with healthcare where you live?

Analysis

The Justice Department sued California on Thursday seeking a court order to stop the state from tabulating certain ballots it alleges came from noncitizens. It also warned that local officials who process such ballots risk criminal investigation, after Los Angeles County refused its demand to confirm the citizenship of people on a list. With the midterm election next month, the dispute affects whether some Californians' ballots are counted and the legal risk for the officials who count them, so watch how the court responds to the request and how turnout looks at the more than 3,000 No Kings events planned for Saturday to encourage early voting.

8 stories 10 outlets

2 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Analysis

Brent crude prices have surged to $110 following reports of tanker fires in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine. These supply disruptions and market volatility threaten to increase global fuel costs and exacerbate shortages, such as those currently reported in Bali. Observers are monitoring whether diplomatic efforts, including proposed diesel agreements, will impact global supply chains or if regional conflicts will continue to drive price instability.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

Should the US ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports to help lower global fuel prices?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.