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T The Guardian· 1d

Who’s who at Cop31: key players at the climate talks

What are the relationships and dominant interests in play, as the summit kicks off after a bitter row over its hosting?Hosting Cop was a key pledge from Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese in 2021, while in opposition, before his successful election campaign. But arcane rules meant the country had to wait its

Analysis

Recent reports highlight a surge in extreme weather events, including devastating wildfires in Indonesia, deadly storms in the UK, and typhoons in Taiwan, which are disrupting daily life through school closures, power outages, and travel delays. These events coincide with scientific warnings that 96% of coral reefs face collapse and that global health is increasingly threatened by climate-linked heat and drought. Observers are now monitoring the potential for further policy shifts regarding environmental regulations and the ongoing global efforts to address rising emissions and temperature limits.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027?
Second warmest on record 41%
Third warmest or lower 39%
Warmest year on record 20%

Poll

Who should pay most for climate damage?

Poll

Would you accept higher energy bills to cut emissions faster?

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T The Guardian· 12h

Economic relief is on the way, Democrats say. But what, how and when?

Winning candidates promised to cut costs, rein in corporations, curb billionaire power and improve the economyDon’t worry, cash-strapped Americans, “relief is on the way”, the senator Chuck Schumer promised last week in a press conference celebrating Democrats’ massive midterms win.Winning candidates promised to cut fo

Analysis

12 developments from 12 outlets in the past week.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Have you delayed care in the past year because of cost?

Forecast poll

Will federal courts permanently strike down Medicaid work requirement rules by the end of the year?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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T The Guardian· 12h

We can’t just ‘move on’: Democrats must hold Trump accountable | Jan-Werner Müller

The new Congress cannot maintain the culture of political impunity that got us here in the first placeFresh from an overwhelming victory, Democrats might quickly divide over what should be seen as unnecessary fracture.Establishment figures demand a focus on “kitchen table issues”, while others insist that successful ca

Analysis

6 developments from 6 outlets in the past week.

6 stories 6 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027?
2.5% to 2.9% 34%
3.0% to 3.4% 26%
Below 2.5% 24%

Poll

Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?

Poll

Compared with a year ago, is your household better or worse off?

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D DW· 1d

Iran: US strikes ship after Hormuz blockade breach

The US military said a vessel trying to leave an Iranian port was hit due to the naval blockade on the country. On its part, Iran said three "non compliant" oil tankers caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysis

Diplomatic efforts are intensifying as officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan meet with Iranian leadership to prevent further escalation, while Qatari mediators work to restart direct U.S.-Iran negotiations. These developments occur amid ongoing military instability, including Houthi attacks in Yemen and reports of tanker strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, which threaten regional shipping and energy security. Observers are now watching for Iran's response to a letter from U.S. Vice President JD Vance and monitoring potential shifts in U.S. military strategy following recent Pentagon personnel changes.

12 stories 12 outlets

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States conduct a direct military strike against Iranian territory by March 1, 2027?
No US strike occurs 72%
Yes, US strike occurs 28%

Poll

Should the US take military action if Iran moves closer to a nuclear weapon?

Poll

If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, who should keep it open?

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A ABC News· 12h

Greek authorities find 12 bodies in a boat carrying migrants; 18 people are rescued

Greek authorities have recovered 13 bodies from a migrant boat found south of Crete

Analysis

Recent reports highlight growing scrutiny over the treatment of detainees, including investigations into the detention of U.S. citizens and demands for data on pregnancy-related medical issues within ICE facilities. These developments are significant as public disapproval of the current administration's immigration crackdown rises, potentially impacting political campaigns and the rights of both citizens and residents. Observers should watch for further congressional inquiries into detention conditions and potential legal challenges regarding the scope of federal immigration enforcement powers.

12 stories 13 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?
No large-scale program 72%
Program implemented 28%

Poll

Should asylum claims be processed outside the country?

Forecast poll

Will the Supreme Court rule to allow judges to quickly reverse immigration detentions by January 25, 2027?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.