Economy

Trade and tariffs

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Analysis

The Trump administration is adjusting its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods by exempting some products while replacing others, prompting a new legal challenge and criticism from Canadian officials regarding increased costs for families. These trade tensions are impacting various sectors, with companies like Audi announcing new U.S. manufacturing plants to mitigate tariff exposure and steel producers in other regions reporting collateral damage. Observers are now watching for the outcome of the lawsuit against the administration's use of the Tariff Act and how ongoing diplomatic talks with nations like India and the EU will shape future trade agreements.

4 stories 4 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement or maintain a tariff of 25% or higher on all imports from Canada as of February 1, 2027?
Tariff below 25% or none 61%
Tariff of 25% or more active 39%

Poll

Do tariffs on imports help or hurt your country overall?

Poll

Which should trade policy protect first?

How the odds moved

Will the United States government implement or maintain a tariff of 25% or higher on all imports from Canada as of February 1, 2027?

Tariff of 25% or more active 39%Tariff below 25% or none 61%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 25% chance
    U.S. court grants preliminary injunction If it happens: ↑ Tariff below 25% or none ↓ Tariff of 25% or more active
    Will it happen by Feb 1?
  • Possible · not happened 40% chance
    Canada publishes final retaliation list If it happens: ↑ Tariff of 25% or more active ↓ Tariff below 25% or none
    Will it happen by Feb 1?
  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    U.S. and Canada sign border security pact If it happens: ↑ Tariff below 25% or none ↓ Tariff of 25% or more active
    Will it happen by Feb 1?

Started at 39% / 61% on Oct 20. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Feb 1, 2027

Will the United States government implement or maintain a tariff of 25% or higher on all imports from Canada as of February 1, 2027?

Tariff of 25% or more active 39%
Tariff below 25% or none 61%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

Ask @zoose anything about Tariffs

  1. New forecast: Will the United States government implement or maintain a tariff of 25% or higher on all imports from Canada as of February 1, 2027? Starting odds: Tariff of 25% or more active 39%, Tariff below 25% or none 61%.

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