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Analysis

15 developments from 15 outlets in the past week.

15 stories 15 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Have you delayed care in the past year because of cost?

Forecast poll

Will federal courts permanently strike down Medicaid work requirement rules by the end of the year?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

How the odds moved

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?

Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 25% chance
    HHS issues rule expanding drugmaker exemptions If it happens: ↑ Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations ↓ Status quo or expanded negotiations
    Will it happen by Mar 31?
  • Possible · not happened 40% chance
    Federal appeals court upholds IRA negotiation powers If it happens: ↑ Status quo or expanded negotiations ↓ Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations
    Will it happen by Mar 31?
  • Possible · not happened 15% chance
    Congress passes bill to limit Medicare price caps If it happens: ↑ Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations ↓ Status quo or expanded negotiations
    Will it happen by Mar 31?

Started at 39% / 61% on Oct 22. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Mar 31, 2027

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?

Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

Ask @zoose anything about Health

  1. New forecast: Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027? Starting odds: Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%, Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%.

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PollHealth

Have you delayed care in the past year because of cost?