Russian drone and missile strikes have killed at least eight civilians in Ukraine, while intelligence agencies warn of an increasing threat of Russian hybrid attacks across Europe. These developments highlight the widening scope of the conflict, raising concerns about civilian safety and the stability of regional infrastructure. Observers are now watching for how NATO members respond to these sabotage incidents and whether international diplomatic efforts at the G20 summit can address the ongoing humanitarian crisis.
No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.
What would move the odds
These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.
Possible · not happened45% chance
G20 fails to reach consensus on final communiqueIf it happens:↑ No formal condemnation↓ Formal condemnation adopted
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened60% chance
China and India issue joint statement on 'peaceful resolution'If it happens:↑ No formal condemnation↓ Formal condemnation adopted
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened30% chance
EU members refuse to sign G20 statement without condemnationIf it happens:↑ Formal condemnation adopted↓ No formal condemnation
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened25% chance
UNGA schedules emergency special session on UkraineIf it happens:↑ Formal condemnation adopted↓ No formal condemnation
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Started at 39% / 61% on Sep 25. Each event can fire once.
Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 15, 2027
Will the UN General Assembly or G20 adopt a resolution or joint declaration formally condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine by 2027-01-15?
Formal condemnation adopted
39%
No formal condemnation
61%
Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.
Discussion
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New forecast: Will the UN General Assembly or G20 adopt a resolution or joint declaration formally condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine by 2027-01-15? Starting odds: Formal condemnation adopted 39%, No formal condemnation 61%.