Economy

Inflation and cost of living

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Analysis

10 developments from 10 outlets in the past week.

10 stories 10 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027?
2.5% to 2.9% 34%
3.0% to 3.4% 26%
Below 2.5% 24%

Poll

Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?

Poll

Compared with a year ago, is your household better or worse off?

How the odds moved

What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027?

Below 2.5% 24%2.5% to 2.9% 34%3.0% to 3.4% 26%3.5% or higher, or unpublished 15%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 40% chance
    October 2026 CPI inflation reported at 3.0%+ If it happens: ↑ 3.5% or higher, or unpublished ↑ 3.0% to 3.4% ↓ 2.5% to 2.9% ↓ Below 2.5%
    Will it happen by Jan 31?
  • Possible · not happened 22% chance
    November 2026 CPI inflation reported below 2.5% If it happens: ↑ Below 2.5% ↓ 3.5% or higher, or unpublished ↓ 3.0% to 3.4%
    Will it happen by Jan 31?
  • Possible · not happened 45% chance
    Fed cuts rates in December 2026 If it happens: ↑ Below 2.5% ↓ 3.0% to 3.4% ↓ 3.5% or higher, or unpublished
    Will it happen by Jan 31?
  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    US gasoline average tops $3.50 If it happens: ↑ 3.5% or higher, or unpublished ↑ 3.0% to 3.4% ↓ Below 2.5%
    Will it happen by Jan 31?
  • Possible · not happened 25% chance
    New broad US tariff increases take effect If it happens: ↑ 3.5% or higher, or unpublished ↓ Below 2.5%
    Will it happen by Jan 31?

Started at 24% / 34% / 26% / 15% on Oct 17. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 31, 2027

What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027?

Below 2.5% 24%
2.5% to 2.9% 34%
3.0% to 3.4% 26%
3.5% or higher, or unpublished 15%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

Ask @zoose anything about Inflation

  1. New forecast: What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027? Starting odds: Below 2.5% 24%, 2.5% to 2.9% 34%, 3.0% to 3.4% 26%, 3.5% or higher, or unpublished 15%.

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