Discuss Full coverage · 15 →
T The Guardian· 12h

Economic relief is on the way, Democrats say. But what, how and when?

Winning candidates promised to cut costs, rein in corporations, curb billionaire power and improve the economyDon’t worry, cash-strapped Americans, “relief is on the way”, the senator Chuck Schumer promised last week in a press conference celebrating Democrats’ massive midterms win.Winning candidates promised to cut fo

Analysis

12 developments from 12 outlets in the past week.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Have you delayed care in the past year because of cost?

Forecast poll

Will federal courts permanently strike down Medicaid work requirement rules by the end of the year?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 10 →
T The Guardian· 12h

We can’t just ‘move on’: Democrats must hold Trump accountable | Jan-Werner Müller

The new Congress cannot maintain the culture of political impunity that got us here in the first placeFresh from an overwhelming victory, Democrats might quickly divide over what should be seen as unnecessary fracture.Establishment figures demand a focus on “kitchen table issues”, while others insist that successful ca

Analysis

10 developments from 10 outlets in the past week.

10 stories 10 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027?
2.5% to 2.9% 34%
3.0% to 3.4% 26%
Below 2.5% 24%

Poll

Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?

Poll

Compared with a year ago, is your household better or worse off?

Discuss Full coverage · 12 →
T The Guardian· 12h

Trump tells 60 Minutes that deportation policy was ‘too tough’

President makes unusual acknowledgement that one of the defining policies of his second administration had become a political liabilityDonald Trump has admitted that his deportation policy was “too tough” and has offered to strike an immigration deal with Democrats in a concession following the Republicans’ disastrous

Analysis

Recent reports highlight growing scrutiny over the treatment of detainees, including investigations into the detention of U.S. citizens and demands for data on pregnancy-related medical issues within ICE facilities. These developments are significant as public disapproval of the current administration's immigration crackdown rises, potentially impacting political campaigns and the rights of both citizens and residents. Observers should watch for further congressional inquiries into detention conditions and potential legal challenges regarding the scope of federal immigration enforcement powers.

12 stories 13 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?
No large-scale program 72%
Program implemented 28%

Poll

Should asylum claims be processed outside the country?

Forecast poll

Will the Supreme Court rule to allow judges to quickly reverse immigration detentions by January 25, 2027?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 7 →
C CNBC· 1d

Amazon's Astro home robot has fans but looks destined for the 'trash heap.' Why it's trying again

Amazon has formed a new home robotics team and is hiring for a “new-to-world robot product,” according to CNBC’s analysis of job posts.

Analysis

7 developments from 7 outlets in the past week.

7 stories 7 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
4.2% to 4.5% 48%
4.1% or lower 30%
4.6% or higher 23%

Poll

What worries you more about the job market?

Forecast poll

Will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report a national unemployment rate of 4.5% or higher in a jobs report released by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Jan 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 11 →
T The Guardian· 1d

1-0 to humankind? US midterms vote puts AI, datacentres and the broligarchy back in their box | Heather Stewart

Election results appear to have turbo-charged an already growing social, political and financial market rethink about AI‘AI clog’: UK battles onslaught of chatbot-generated complaintsEditorial: the AI backlash – Silicon Valley’s political power is crackingLast week’s midterms may not have cowed Donald Trump, but they s

Analysis

Recent developments highlight a growing tension between AI's rapid expansion and its societal costs, ranging from market volatility and cybersecurity vulnerabilities to public backlash against the environmental impact of data centers. These events underscore the increasing scrutiny of AI's influence on national security, political discourse, and personal safety, as governments and communities push for greater oversight. Moving forward, observers are tracking how international regulatory efforts, investment restrictions, and local opposition to infrastructure projects will shape the future of the AI industry.

11 stories 11 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

Should AI-generated images and video be required to carry a label?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.