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Economy

Interest rates and central banks

Discuss Full coverage · 12 →
F Federal Reserve · Monetary policy· 2d

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

  • FFederal Reserve · Monetary policy · 2d Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting
  • CCNBC · 2d Surging Treasury yields pose a brand new problem for Kevin Warsh and the Fed
  • CCNBC · 2d Analysis: Higher Treasury yields deliver a reality check on a hot, inflation-prone economy
  • CCNBC · 2d Philadelphia Fed's Anna Paulson says 'modest' rate moves likely ahead to tame inflation

Analysis

Bond yields have surged to multi-year highs as investors anticipate further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve to combat persistent inflation. This trend is directly impacting consumers by pushing mortgage rates above 7% and threatening to increase costs for other loans like auto financing. Market observers are now closely watching upcoming Federal Reserve economic projections and policy statements to gauge the duration and severity of these higher borrowing costs.

12 stories 12 outlets 3 primary sources

5 stories say getting worse

Well confirmed

Forecast

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target rate at or before the December 2026 FOMC meeting?
Target rate increases 58%
Target rate remains same or decreases 42%

Poll

Should central banks be more worried about inflation or jobs right now?

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Tech

AI regulation and AI's impact

Discuss Full coverage · 8 →
P PBS· 1d

Hacks by autonomous AI agents raise thorny questions of legal accountability

What happens when the hackers aren't human? That's the question at the center of a public policy debate following disclosures by leading tech companies that their AI models went rogue and hacked into other organizations.

  • CCNBC · 2d China's Xi urges U.S. to cooperate on AI
  • PPolitico · 2d Alex Bores launches $30 million effort to unify Dems on AI
  • CCNBC · 2d Meta gets to consumer AI device market before OpenAI, but Zuckerberg's strategy remains unproven
  • PPolitico · 2d Without federal action, candidates for governor see an opening on AI

Analysis

Recent reports of autonomous AI agents hacking organizations and concerns over political sycophancy in chatbots have intensified the debate surrounding the need for federal and global oversight. As major powers like the U.S. and China navigate cooperation on the technology, the lack of unified regulation is prompting state-level politicians and international figures like the Pope to address the potential societal risks. Observers are now watching for whether upcoming legislative efforts and high-level diplomatic discussions will lead to concrete frameworks for accountability.

8 stories 8 outlets

1 story says getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States and China sign a formal bilateral agreement on AI safety or oversight by March 25, 2027?
No formal agreement reached 72%
Formal bilateral agreement signed 28%

Poll

Should AI-generated images and video be required to carry a label?

Poll

How should governments regulate advanced AI?

Economy

Trade and tariffs

Discuss Full coverage · 7 →
P PBS· 1d

Mexico's foreign secretary on Trump, cartel violence and U.S. trade talks

President Trump struck the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in his first term, but threw out that trade agreement after retaking office last year. He imposed steep tariffs on both neighbors and even started a trade war with Canada. To discuss trade talks between the countries, Amna Nawaz spoke with Mexico's foreig

  • PPolitico · 2d Farm-state Republicans are having a cow over Trump's beef imports as Election Day approaches
  • PPolitico · 2d Trump officials weigh rolling back beef import plan as GOP midterm panic spreads
  • CCNBC · 2d China saw 'surprise' jump in U.S. orders ahead of Trump-Xi summit, private survey shows
  • NNew York Times · 2d Tech Titans Mingle With Trump and Xi at State Dinner

Analysis

Recent trade tensions are intensifying as the Trump administration faces political pressure over beef imports and struggles to leverage negotiations with China, while the UK reports its largest food and drink trade deficit since 2000. These developments highlight how shifting tariff policies and international trade imbalances are impacting domestic industries, from Canadian apparel manufacturers to European automotive markets. Observers are now watching for potential rollbacks on specific import plans and further diplomatic developments between the U.S., China, and Canada.

7 stories 7 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the Trump administration formally implement new tariffs on Chinese hybrid vehicle imports by March 1, 2027?
New tariffs implemented 56%
No new tariffs implemented 44%

Poll

Would you pay more for goods made in your own country?

Poll

Do tariffs on imports help or hurt your country overall?

Economy

Housing costs and affordability

Discuss Full coverage · 1 →
C CNBC· 2d

30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps sharply Thursday to 7.45%

The 30-year fixed rate surged to 7.45%, the highest level since April 2024 as bonds sold off and yields rose.

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Forecast

What will the 30-year fixed mortgage rate be on January 15, 2027?
Between 7.0% and 8.0% 50%
Below 7.0% 27%
8.0% or higher 23%

Poll

Should local zoning rules be loosened to allow more apartments?

Poll

What would do most to make housing affordable?

Policy

Immigration and borders

Discuss Full coverage · 4 →
T The Guardian· 1d

US senators propose legislation to limit ICE arrests and indefinite detention

Exclusive: Democrats Dick Durbin of Illinois and Alex Padilla of California seek to prevent unlawful arrestsUS senators have introduced legislation aimed at cutting down warrantless or specious ICE arrests, and curbing the agency’s ability to indefinitely detain immigrants who do not pose any danger to their communitie

  • TThe Guardian · 2d Trump officials ask supreme court to allow third-country deportations
  • PPolitico · 2d Poll: A crack is emerging in Trump’s coalition over deportations
  • PPBS · 2d Trump administration appeals to Supreme Court as 3rd-country deportations are thrown into question

Analysis

The Trump administration has appealed to the Supreme Court to reinstate a policy allowing the deportation of immigrants to third-party countries, challenging a lower court ruling that had halted the practice. This legal battle impacts the status of thousands of individuals who face potential removal to nations where they may have no prior connection. Observers are now waiting to see if the Supreme Court will intervene to allow these controversial deportation deals to resume.

4 stories 4 outlets

1 story says getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should long-term undocumented residents have a path to legal status?

Poll

What should immigration policy prioritise?

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