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  1. We follow big real-world issues, like wars, prices, climate and health, and only show news that changes them.
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Conflict

Russia–Ukraine war

Discuss Full coverage · 53 →
A Al Jazeera· 55m

Russia’s ambassador to US, Alexander Darchiev, dies at 66

Moscow announces the veteran diplomat's sudden passing without further details.

+1 more sources
  • RReuters · 55m EXCLUSIVE: Recent Ukrainian attacks have reduced Russia's oil processing capacity by 30%, sources say
  • NNew York Times · 55m This Defense Makes Drones (and GPS) Think They’re in Peru
  • AAl Jazeera · 55m ‘Malign actors’: Ireland fears Russia could threaten undersea cables
  • CCBS News · 7h U.S. brokers Ukraine-Russia prisoner swap, but peace not in sight

Analysis

Russia and Ukraine have exchanged major drone and missile strikes while diplomatic tensions escalate between Kyiv and Washington, following President Trump's decision to waive new sanctions on Russia and his criticism of President Zelenskyy. These developments, alongside the restoration of full Starlink satellite speeds for Ukrainian forces, highlight the precarious nature of Ukraine's military and diplomatic support as winter approaches. Observers are now watching for the outcome of European Union summit discussions on continued aid and the potential resumption of US-mediated peace talks.

12 stories 13 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will Ukraine and Russia sign a formal ceasefire or peace agreement by April 15, 2027?
No formal agreement 72%
Agreement signed 28%

Poll

Should frozen Russian assets be used to rebuild Ukraine?

Poll

Would you support a ceasefire that freezes current front lines?

Democracy

Elections and democracy

Discuss Full coverage · 92 →
F France 24· 7h

Brazil electoral court fines Meta $1.3 MN, sees no deliberate election bias

Jan Onoszko, our correspondent in Rio, has more.

+1 more sources
  • CCNN · 55m Scott Colom wins in Mississippi, Congress latest: Live Updates
  • TThe Guardian · 55m KKR and RWE are rich firms. Why do they need a UK state loan for their windfarms? | Nils Pratley
  • AAl Jazeera · 55m Democrat Scott Colom wins closely watched US Senate race in Mississippi
  • AAl Jazeera · 55m Trump’s White House calls Democratic plans for congressional probes ‘abuse’

Analysis

Recent elections in Brazil, Israel, and Serbia have resulted in significant political shifts, including a presidential victory for Lula in Brazil and a deadlocked parliamentary outcome in Israel. These developments impact governance and stability in their respective regions, with ongoing concerns regarding election integrity and the peaceful transfer of power. Observers are now watching for the resolution of government formation in Israel and the legal and political fallout surrounding the post-election situation in Brazil.

12 stories 13 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Poll

Should there be age limits for top elected offices?

Policy

Healthcare access and costs

Discuss Full coverage · 10 →
B BBC News· 55m

Missing 11-month-old baby rescued after being buried alive in a crate in South Carolina

Officials say the child was found close to his father's home on Tuesday, a day after he was taken, and is being cared for in hospital.

  • TThe Guardian · 19h Youpla directors disqualified over collapsed funeral fund that targeted Aboriginal families
  • TThe Guardian · 19h Three dead in Los Angeles after driver crashes into pedestrians, officials say
  • TThe Guardian · 1d Police investigate as nearly 30 Santa Barbara half-marathon runners fall ill with ‘unusual symptoms’
  • TThe Guardian · 2d Economic relief is on the way, Democrats say. But what, how and when?

Analysis

10 developments from 10 outlets in the past week.

10 stories 10 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Have you delayed care in the past year because of cost?

Forecast poll

Will federal courts permanently strike down Medicaid work requirement rules by the end of the year?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Climate

Climate change and extreme weather

Discuss Full coverage · 23 →
B BBC News· 55m

'Summer was a wake-up call, winter could be dire' warning over food supplies

Wales needs to grow more fruit and veg or it will be at the mercy of wars and climate change, says expert.

  • TThe Guardian · 55m UK appoints world’s first special representative for climate security
  • TThe Guardian · 3d Who’s who at Cop31: key players at the climate talks
  • DDW · 12h Germany slips in climate protection rankings as other countries make gains
  • FFrance 24 · 12h 'France has some of the cleanest electricity in the world, but we're not using enough of it'

Analysis

Recent reports highlight a surge in extreme weather events, including devastating wildfires in Indonesia, deadly storms in the UK, and typhoons in Taiwan, which are disrupting daily life through school closures, power outages, and travel delays. These events coincide with scientific warnings that 96% of coral reefs face collapse and that global health is increasingly threatened by climate-linked heat and drought. Observers are now monitoring the potential for further policy shifts regarding environmental regulations and the ongoing global efforts to address rising emissions and temperature limits.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027?
Second warmest on record 41%
Third warmest or lower 39%
Warmest year on record 20%

Poll

Who should pay most for climate damage?

Poll

Would you accept higher energy bills to cut emissions faster?

Energy

Oil and gas prices and supply

Discuss Full coverage · 19 →
B BBC News· 55m

'Not the answer': Labour MPs speak out against Rosebank as decision looms

There is a growing expectation among senior Labour figures that drilling in the oil field will be given the green light.

  • TThe Guardian · 55m ‘The world we know is over’ without urgent climate action, leaders tell Cop31
  • FFrance 24 · 7h Violent incidents in schools as French students vow to maintain protest pressure
  • TThe Hindu · 19h Petroleum contamination makes wells unusable at Palloor in Mahe
  • FFrance 24 · 1d US charges three 'Iranian operatives' over RAF Fairford terror plot

Analysis

Oil and natural gas prices are surging globally as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine threaten supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt refinery operations. These rising energy costs are driving up fuel prices for consumers, fueling cost-of-living protests across Europe, and boosting record profits for major oil companies. Investors and policymakers are now closely monitoring whether diplomatic efforts to secure new supplies can stabilize markets or if further escalations will continue to constrain energy availability.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

Should your country produce more of its own oil and gas?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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