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Analysis

Russia and Ukraine have exchanged major drone and missile strikes while diplomatic tensions escalate between Kyiv and Washington over President Trump's decision to waive new sanctions on Russia. These developments, coupled with reports of restored Starlink access for Ukrainian forces, highlight a volatile shift in both military operations and international alliances that could impact the war's trajectory as winter approaches. Observers are now watching for the outcome of renewed peace talks and the effectiveness of President Zelenskyy's efforts to secure continued support from European allies.

12 stories 13 outlets ↑ Getting worse

2 stories say getting better, 1 story says mixed

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should Western countries keep sending weapons to Ukraine?

Forecast poll

Will the EU reach a formal agreement on the proposed Ukraine support budget at the Brussels summit by October 31?

Forecast · closes Oct 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Analysis

Tensions in the West Bank have escalated following a series of settler attacks on Palestinians and a US journalist, prompting Israeli authorities to arrest several suspects while imposing a military lockdown after a deadly shooting near Hebron. Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is deepening as the World Food Programme warns that funding shortages will cut off food aid for 500,000 people. Observers are monitoring how these security and humanitarian developments, alongside ongoing anti-government protests, will impact the upcoming Israeli national elections.

2 stories 2 outlets ↑ Getting worse
Early reports

Forecast

Will the Gaza ceasefire that took effect in October 2025 be officially declared over by Israel, Hamas, or the US government by March 31, 2027?
No, ceasefire not declared over 55%
Yes, ceasefire declared over 45%

Last move: Hamas attack kills Israeli soldiers · 1d ago

Poll

Who should govern Gaza after the war?

Poll

What should come first in Gaza?

Stories