Discuss Full coverage · 5 →
C CNBC· 5h

Oil prices rise as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian refinery raise supply worries

Oil prices climbed Wednesday as investors weighed the prospect of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

Analysis

Oil prices have surged following renewed tensions in the Middle East and reports of naval incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting French President Emmanuel Macron to secure additional diesel supplies from Gulf nations to address domestic fuel shortages. These supply disruptions and rising energy costs are fueling widespread protests and political instability across Europe, while global powers increasingly look to alternative refining partnerships to stabilize markets. Observers are monitoring whether these diplomatic efforts and potential U.S. strikes against Iran will further impact global crude availability and consumer prices.

5 stories 6 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

How should governments respond to high fuel prices?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 3 →
C CNBC· 5h

Meta- and Google-backed Jio Platforms’ shares soar over 21% on trading debut after record IPO

Jio had offered 270 million shares in the IPO priced at 1,119 rupees apiece, raising 302 billion rupees ($3.2 billion) in the country's largest-ever IPO.

Analysis

Recent policy developments span from regulatory crackdowns on misleading health product claims and new hospital billing transparency mandates to state-level investments in AI infrastructure and robotics. These shifts impact consumer protection and public service accessibility, while also signaling a broader push toward technology-led economic growth. Observers should monitor the ongoing legal challenges to national privacy laws and the evolving public discourse surrounding the environmental sustainability of India's expanding data center market.

3 stories 3 outlets

2 stories say getting better, 1 story says mixed

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will India and the United States sign a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement by March 31, 2027?
No agreement signed 61%
Agreement signed 39%

Poll

What should India's government focus on first?

Forecast poll

Will the Maharashtra government notify the bilingual hospital rate-list rule in the Official Gazette by 2026-01-31?

Forecast · closes Dec 17
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 21 →
C CNBC· 5h

Trump says Iran war will end 'when I want it to' as costs reportedly balloon to $47 billion

Trump's statement comes as a report from The Hill revealed that the costs of the Iran conflict has ballooned to $47 billion.

Analysis

Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have convened in Tehran for diplomatic talks aimed at de-escalating regional tensions as fighting continues in Yemen and reports emerge of attacks on tankers and infrastructure. The ongoing conflict, which has cost the U.S. military at least $47 billion, is contributing to volatility in global oil markets that could impact consumer energy prices. Observers are now monitoring whether these diplomatic efforts will yield a ceasefire or if the U.S. and Iran will escalate military actions following recent threats of further strikes.

12 stories 12 outlets

1 story says mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States conduct a direct military strike against Iranian territory by March 1, 2027?
No US strike occurs 72%
Yes, US strike occurs 28%

Poll

What is the best way to reduce the risk of a wider Middle East war?

Poll

Should the US take military action if Iran moves closer to a nuclear weapon?

Discuss Full coverage · 8 →
C CNBC· 1d

Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates this week — but stay hawkish: CNBC survey

All survey respondents said they expect the BOJ to set the stage for a rate hike in December or January, as inflation and wages continue to rise.

Analysis

8 developments from 8 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans mixed.

8 stories 8 outlets

1 story says mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 4 →
C CNBC· 11h

As holiday shopping approaches, seasonal hiring gives 'mixed signals,' experts say

Companies have posted more seasonal jobs in 2026 than in 2025, boosted by non-retail jobs. Major retailers are, instead, relying on permanent staff.

Analysis

4 developments from 5 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

4 stories 5 outlets ↓ Getting better

2 stories say getting better, 1 story says mixed

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
4.2% to 4.5% 48%
4.1% or lower 30%
4.6% or higher 23%

Poll

How secure does your job feel right now?

Forecast poll

Will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report a national unemployment rate of 4.5% or higher in a jobs report released by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Jan 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.