Discuss Full coverage · 4 →
C CNBC· 19h

Japan exports post huge miss in September as growth slows to 16.7%

Analysis

4 developments from 4 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

4 stories 4 outlets

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement or maintain a tariff of 25% or higher on all imports from Canada as of February 1, 2027?
Tariff below 25% or none 61%
Tariff of 25% or more active 39%

Poll

Would you pay more for goods made in your own country?

Poll

Do tariffs on imports help or hurt your country overall?

Discuss Full coverage · 5 →
C CNBC· 13h

Oil prices climb as traders assess Middle East developments

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Tuesday that naval mines had prevented three tankers attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysis

Global fuel markets remain volatile as geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz drive up crude prices, while European leaders like Emmanuel Macron scramble to secure alternative diesel supplies to mitigate domestic cost-of-living protests. These supply disruptions and rising energy costs are fueling political unrest across Europe and causing localized fuel shortages in regions like Bali. Observers are now watching whether recent diplomatic efforts, including U.S. agreements to import Russian diesel, will effectively stabilize prices or if the current inflationary pressure on households and businesses will persist.

5 stories 5 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

Should the US ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports to help lower global fuel prices?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 1 →
C CNBC· 19h

September data shows housing market in a deep freeze

New data on the housing market's performance in September is bleak, with sales, construction and sentiment all falling more than expected.

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Forecast

What will the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the United States be on February 25, 2027, according to Freddie Mac?
6.0% to 7.0% 54%
Below 6.0% 25%
Above 7.0% 21%

Poll

Should local zoning rules be loosened to allow more apartments?

Poll

What would do most to make housing affordable?

Discuss Full coverage · 38 →
T The Guardian· 19h

Michael Bloomberg spends $80m on Democrats as Trump moves $400m to Republican candidates

Billionaire ex-mayor of New York City is focusing funds on House races to help Democrats retake majority in midtermsUS politics live – latest updatesThe billionaire Michael Bloomberg will spend $80m to help Democratic candidates in the midterm elections, US media reported on Tuesday, a significant infusion of cash for

+1 more sources

Analysis

Global election cycles are intensifying, with significant developments ranging from massive campaign spending in the U.S. midterms to legal battles over social media neutrality in Brazil and ballot integrity disputes in California. These events highlight growing tensions over election administration, the influence of big money and tech platforms, and the stability of democratic processes worldwide. Observers are now watching for the outcomes of upcoming runoff votes in Brazil and the impact of ongoing legal and political challenges on voter access and election integrity.

12 stories 13 outlets

1 story says getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Discuss Full coverage · 10 →
T The Guardian· 19h

US bans use of China’s DeepSeek AI tools by government agencies

Use of tools ‘may result in the transfer of sensitive data’ to China, defense department saysThe US government on Monday ordered its agencies to stop using artificial intelligence (AI) tools from the Chinese startup DeepSeek, as the countries race for dominance in the fast-moving sector.A notice from the Department of

Analysis

Character.ai has filed for bankruptcy following lawsuits alleging ties to teen suicides, CNN reports, and China says it will curb exports of technology, including AI, citing national security risks. For ordinary people, these stories show AI reaching into daily life, from the safety of chatbot services to entry-level jobs for young workers in India and the destruction of physical books scanned to train AI models. Watch the U.S.-China dialogues on AI safety and governance, which PBS reports have made progress, including on setting up a mechanism to notify each other of AI incidents that could threaten national security.

10 stories 10 outlets

2 stories say mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

Should the EU prioritize developing its own sovereign AI infrastructure over adopting existing US or Chinese models?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.