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P PBS· 13h

Homeland Security grants temporary deportation reprieve for more than 100,000 Ukrainians and Sudanese

This decision comes as activists and lawmakers argue there are no safe conditions for Ukrainians to return to amid the war with Russia.

Analysis

4 developments from 4 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

4 stories 4 outlets

1 story says getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?
No large-scale program 72%
Program implemented 28%

Poll

Should long-term undocumented residents have a path to legal status?

Poll

What should immigration policy prioritise?

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P PBS· 13h

Tamara Keith and Carrie Dann on Trump's approval rating hitting a record low

NPR's Tamara Keith and Carrie Dann of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter join Geoff Bennett to discuss the latest political news, including a new poll putting President Trump's approval rating at a record low, the amount of money being spent on Senate races, Trump escalating his feud with Ukraine's president and

Analysis

Global electoral tensions are intensifying as the U.S. Department of Justice sues California over ballot processing procedures and Brazilian officials demand Meta ensure equal treatment for presidential candidates. These developments highlight ongoing disputes over election integrity and digital campaign fairness that directly impact how voters access information and cast ballots. Observers are now monitoring upcoming midterm and presidential run-off elections in the U.S., Brazil, and Israel to see how these legal and regulatory challenges influence voter participation and final results.

12 stories 13 outlets

4 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

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F Federal Reserve · Monetary policy· 3d

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Analysis

2 developments from 2 outlets in the past week, including 2 official sources.

2 stories 2 outlets 2 primary sources
Early reports

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

Should the Federal Reserve prioritize cutting the federal funds rate now to support jobs, or hold it until inflation nears 2%?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 13h

U.S. must put pressure on Russia so Putin ends the war, Ukrainian official says

As Ukraine and Russia trade attacks, President Trump has exempted Russia from sanctions, widening his rift with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. To discuss the latest developments, Geoff Bennett spoke with Denys Sienik, Ukraine's Deputy Ambassador to the U.S.

Analysis

Tensions between Washington and Kyiv have escalated as President Trump waived new Russia sanctions and accused President Zelenskyy of prolonging the war, while Ukraine faces intensified Russian aerial strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure. This diplomatic rift raises concerns about the stability of future military aid and intelligence sharing, potentially leaving Ukraine more vulnerable as winter approaches. Observers are now watching for the outcome of President Zelenskyy's efforts to rally European allies at the Brussels summit to secure continued support.

7 stories 7 outlets ↑ Getting worse

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will Ukraine and Russia sign a formal ceasefire or peace agreement by April 15, 2027?
No formal agreement 72%
Agreement signed 28%

Poll

Should the EU prioritize increasing direct military aid to Ukraine or focus on internal budget stability?

Forecast poll

Will the EU reach a formal agreement on the proposed Ukraine support budget at the Brussels summit by October 31?

Forecast · closes Oct 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 3d

China says it will curb tech exports, including AI, citing national security risks

The proposal came as China and the U.S. made progress in dialogues over AI safety and governance and on the setting up of a notification mechanism between the two superpowers for AI incidents that could threaten national security.

Analysis

Character.ai has filed for bankruptcy following lawsuits alleging ties to teen suicides, CNN reports, and China says it will curb exports of technology, including AI, citing national security risks. For ordinary people, these stories show AI reaching into daily life, from the safety of chatbot services to entry-level jobs for young workers in India and the destruction of physical books scanned to train AI models. Watch the U.S.-China dialogues on AI safety and governance, which PBS reports have made progress, including on setting up a mechanism to notify each other of AI incidents that could threaten national security.

6 stories 6 outlets ↕ Mixed

2 stories say mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should the EU prioritize developing its own sovereign AI infrastructure over adopting existing US or Chinese models?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.