Discuss Full coverage · 10 →
A Al Jazeera· 8h

Anger as ICE agents make arrest in New Jersey grocery store

ICE agents stormed a New Jersey store before being confronted by a crowd demanding they leave, as they escort a man out.

Analysis

10 developments from 10 outlets in the past week.

10 stories 10 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027?
2.5% to 2.9% 34%
3.0% to 3.4% 26%
Below 2.5% 24%

Poll

Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?

Poll

Compared with a year ago, is your household better or worse off?

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P PBS· 8h

Nvidia's Jensen Huang faces scrutiny over alleged affair with Chinese spy

Lawmakers, investors and tech leaders are assessing bombshell revelations about Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang. Huang admitted to an affair with a woman accused of being a Chinese spy. Nvidia designs chips and processors that power artificial intelligence and underpin much of the enormous investment in the industr

Analysis

Recent developments highlight a growing tension between AI's rapid expansion and its societal costs, ranging from market volatility and cybersecurity vulnerabilities to public backlash against the environmental impact of data centers. These events underscore the increasing scrutiny of AI's influence on national security, political discourse, and personal safety, as governments and communities push for greater oversight. Moving forward, observers are tracking how international regulatory efforts, investment restrictions, and local opposition to infrastructure projects will shape the future of the AI industry.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

Should AI-generated images and video be required to carry a label?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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T The Guardian· 8h

Police investigate as nearly 30 Santa Barbara half-marathon runners fall ill with ‘unusual symptoms’

Runners seek medical treatment as 13-mile race held amid unusually high November temperaturesPolice in southern California are investigating the circumstances that led to the hospitalization of nearly 30 runners who participated in the Santa Barbara Half on Sunday.Santa Barbara police said in a statement to the Associa

Analysis

12 developments from 12 outlets in the past week.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Have you delayed care in the past year because of cost?

Forecast poll

Will federal courts permanently strike down Medicaid work requirement rules by the end of the year?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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N New York Times· 8h

Exxon Strikes Preliminary Deal to Return to Venezuela

The agreement brings the biggest U.S. oil company a step closer to pumping oil again in Venezuela, nearly two decades after it left the country.

Analysis

Oil and natural gas prices are surging globally as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine threaten supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt refinery operations. These rising energy costs are driving up fuel prices for consumers, fueling cost-of-living protests across Europe, and boosting record profits for major oil companies. Investors and policymakers are now closely monitoring whether diplomatic efforts to secure new supplies can stabilize markets or if further escalations will continue to constrain energy availability.

8 stories 8 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

Should your country produce more of its own oil and gas?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 117 →
P PBS· 8h

Hegseth faces impeachment push as Congress returns to Washington

There were some new faces on Capitol Hill on Monday as incoming lawmakers arrived for their orientation. But for the current House and Senate, it was back to business. They began one final stretch before the GOP loses its control of Congress in January. Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky moved to force a vote to impeach De

Analysis

Recent elections in Brazil, Israel, and Serbia have resulted in significant political shifts, including a presidential victory for Lula in Brazil and a deadlocked parliamentary outcome in Israel. These developments impact governance and stability in their respective regions, with ongoing concerns regarding election integrity and the peaceful transfer of power. Observers are now watching for the resolution of government formation in Israel and the legal and political fallout surrounding the post-election situation in Brazil.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Poll

Should there be age limits for top elected offices?