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C CNBC· 3d

Treasury yields fall as investors crowd into bonds for safety amid election stock sell-off

Treasury yields fell on Tuesday night, as investors sought shelter from a sell-off in equity futures sparked by big victories from Democrats in the U.S. midterm elections.

Analysis

2 developments from 2 outlets in the past week.

2 stories 2 outlets
Early reports

Forecast

What will the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the United States be on February 25, 2027, according to Freddie Mac?
6.0% to 7.0% 54%
Below 6.0% 25%
Above 7.0% 21%

Poll

What would do most to make housing affordable?

Poll

How much of your income goes to rent or mortgage?

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T The Guardian· 4h

Trump may have lost but don’t bet Democrats can fix the economy

There’s not much they can do over the next couple of years to alleviate angry voters’ stress over pricesIt was the economy, again. Although Donald Trump largely ignored it, voters’ acute concerns over the rising cost of living fuelled a political upheaval for the ages that is likely to deliver the biggest swing toward

Analysis

11 developments from 11 outlets in the past week.

11 stories 11 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027?
2.5% to 2.9% 34%
3.0% to 3.4% 26%
Below 2.5% 24%

Poll

Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?

Poll

Compared with a year ago, is your household better or worse off?

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N New York Times· 4h

U.S. Cleared Nvidia Chips to Chinese Firms With Empty Offices and Troubling Ties

The Commerce Department has approved dozens of Chinese companies to handle Nvidia’s H200 chips, some of which have ties to firms under sanctions over national security.

Analysis

The Trump administration is adjusting its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods by exempting some products while replacing others, prompting a new legal challenge and criticism from Canadian officials regarding increased costs for families. These trade tensions are impacting various sectors, with companies like Audi announcing new U.S. manufacturing plants to mitigate tariff exposure and steel producers in other regions reporting collateral damage. Observers are now watching for the outcome of the lawsuit against the administration's use of the Tariff Act and how ongoing diplomatic talks with nations like India and the EU will shape future trade agreements.

3 stories 3 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement or maintain a tariff of 25% or higher on all imports from Canada as of February 1, 2027?
Tariff below 25% or none 61%
Tariff of 25% or more active 39%

Poll

Do tariffs on imports help or hurt your country overall?

Poll

Which should trade policy protect first?

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P PBS· 10h

Remembering Jay Rockefeller's life and legacy of public service

Jay Rockefeller, former West Virginia governor and longtime U.S. senator, has died at age 89. Born into one of America's wealthiest and most prominent families, Rockefeller forged his own path in politics and became a leading voice on healthcare, education and the needs of working families. Lisa Desjardins looks back a

Analysis

12 developments from 14 outlets in the past week.

12 stories 14 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Should employer-provided health plans be required to cover GLP-1 weight-loss drugs?

Forecast poll

Will federal courts permanently strike down Medicaid work requirement rules by the end of the year?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 143 →
T The Guardian· 4h

Black voter turnout surges in US south despite Republican redistricting drive: ‘They could not stop the momentum’

The GOP tried to dilute their power, but Black voters helped Democrats get elected in Alabama, Texas and FloridaBlack voter turnout surged across US southern states where Republicans were accused of redrawing electoral maps to “diminish Black political power” in the wake of a seismic supreme court ruling.Democrats flip

Analysis

Recent elections in Brazil, Israel, and Serbia have resulted in significant political shifts, including a presidential victory for Lula in Brazil and a deadlocked parliamentary outcome in Israel. These developments impact governance and stability in their respective regions, with ongoing concerns regarding election integrity and the peaceful transfer of power. Observers are now watching for the resolution of government formation in Israel and the legal and political fallout surrounding the post-election situation in Brazil.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Poll

Should there be age limits for top elected offices?