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C CNBC· 3h

Tankers defy sharp escalation of Iranian attacks to keep crude oil flowing through Strait of Hormuz

Soaring freight rates are giving tankers a big financial incentive to run the gauntlet through the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysis

Global oil and natural gas prices are surging as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war threaten critical supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure. These rising costs are driving up fuel prices for households, fueling political unrest across Europe, and boosting profits for major oil companies. Investors and consumers are now watching for further escalations in the Middle East and potential government interventions to stabilize energy supplies.

12 stories 12 outlets

4 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

How should governments respond to high fuel prices?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 27 →
C CNBC· 3h

Iran claims four tankers struck mines in Hormuz as strike fears grow after U.S. midterms

Iran said four tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran disputed a U.S. claim that key shipping lanes had been cleared.

Analysis

Diplomatic efforts are underway as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan hold talks with Iran to prevent further conflict, while the U.S. continues to signal potential military action amid a Pentagon leadership shake-up. These escalating tensions and regional skirmishes, including reported attacks on tankers and Houthi strikes, threaten global shipping lanes and increase the economic and military costs of the ongoing crisis. Observers are watching for Iran's response to a diplomatic letter from U.S. Vice President JD Vance and the outcome of the ongoing Israeli election.

12 stories 13 outlets

3 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States conduct a direct military strike against Iranian territory by March 1, 2027?
No US strike occurs 72%
Yes, US strike occurs 28%

Poll

Should the US take military action if Iran moves closer to a nuclear weapon?

Poll

If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, who should keep it open?

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C CNBC· 3h

Fed officials are already saying they’ll need to get back to hiking rates

The comments from Federal Reserve Presidents Alberto Musalem and Lorie Logan offer the first morsels of insight into what leaders at the Fed see happening next.

Analysis

12 developments from 13 outlets in the past week, including 1 official source. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

12 stories 13 outlets 1 primary source

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 7 →
T The Guardian· 3h

Democratic lawmakers demand ICE data on detainee miscarriages

ICE failed to record data on miscarriages suffered by immigrants in its custody between October 2025 and June 2026US lawmakers are urgently demanding that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) disclose how many pregnant immigrants have experienced miscarriages, stillbirths and pregnancy-related hospitalizations whi

Analysis

Recent reports highlight a surge in scrutiny over federal immigration enforcement, including allegations of wrongful detentions of U.S. citizens and a death at a Georgia detention facility. These developments raise significant concerns regarding civil liberties and the treatment of individuals within the immigration system, impacting both citizens and foreign nationals. Observers are now watching for potential legal challenges, including a Supreme Court case regarding detention reversals and the ongoing impact of new policies targeting international students and deportation procedures.

7 stories 7 outlets

5 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?
No large-scale program 72%
Program implemented 28%

Poll

Should long-term undocumented residents have a path to legal status?

Poll

What should immigration policy prioritise?

Discuss Full coverage · 9 →
C CNBC· 3h

Russian strikes plunge Ukrainian city into blackout as Zelenskyy warns of more missile attacks

Russian strikes caused major power outages in Dnipro as a reported Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire at a Russian oil refinery.

Analysis

Russia and Ukraine have exchanged significant drone and missile strikes while diplomatic tensions escalate between Kyiv and Washington over President Trump's decision to waive new sanctions on Russia. These developments, coupled with reports of restored Starlink access for Ukrainian forces, highlight the volatile intersection of battlefield operations and shifting international alliances. Observers are now watching for the outcome of potential US-mediated peace talks and the impact of President Zelenskyy's efforts to secure continued support from European allies.

9 stories 9 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will Ukraine and Russia sign a formal ceasefire or peace agreement by April 15, 2027?
No formal agreement 72%
Agreement signed 28%

Poll

Would you support a ceasefire that freezes current front lines?

Poll

Should Western countries keep sending weapons to Ukraine?