Discuss Full coverage · 8 →
C CNBC· 13h

Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates this week — but stay hawkish: CNBC survey

All survey respondents said they expect the BOJ to set the stage for a rate hike in December or January, as inflation and wages continue to rise.

Analysis

8 developments from 8 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans mixed.

8 stories 8 outlets

1 story says mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 14 →
C CNBC· 13h

FTC and 20 states sue Dollar General, alleging retailer overcharged shoppers

The Federal Trade Commission and 20 states have filed a lawsuit against Dollar General, claiming the retailer has charged customers more than advertised prices.

Analysis

12 developments from 12 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

12 stories 12 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027?
2.5% to 2.9% 34%
3.0% to 3.4% 26%
Below 2.5% 24%

Poll

What should be the main tool to bring prices down?

Poll

Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?

Discuss Full coverage · 84 →
T The Guardian· 7h

Trump administration asks Washington to set aside hundreds of ballots from suspected noncitizen voters

This is the latest sign of the administration’s attempts to challenge states with competitive midterm races that could determine control of CongressThe Trump administration on Monday asked Washington state to set aside any ballots received from more than 400 people it alleges are registered to vote without US citizensh

Analysis

Recent election cycles in Brazil and Serbia have resulted in significant leadership shifts, while political campaigns in the U.S. continue to intensify ahead of midterm elections with record-breaking spending and legal disputes over ballot processing. These developments highlight a global trend of heightened polarization and intense scrutiny over electoral integrity that directly impacts governance and policy direction. Observers are now monitoring how these new administrations navigate political instability and how U.S. officials manage ongoing legal challenges regarding voter eligibility and election administration.

12 stories 13 outlets

4 stories say getting worse, 2 stories say getting better, 1 story says mixed

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Discuss Full coverage · 16 →
C CNBC· 1d

SoftBank reportedly plans $50 billion tech investment in aspiring 'AI nation' Malaysia

SoftBank Group reportedly plans to invest $50 billion in Malaysia's technology sector, including artificial intelligence and data centers.

Analysis

Recent developments highlight a growing tension between AI's rapid expansion and its real-world consequences, ranging from market volatility and cybersecurity vulnerabilities to legal challenges regarding safety and misinformation. These events impact ordinary people through potential disruptions to digital infrastructure, the spread of AI-generated falsehoods, and local concerns over the environmental and economic costs of data centers. Moving forward, observers are watching how international regulatory efforts, such as U.S. investment restrictions and EU policy initiatives, will balance national security and safety with the industry's continued push for global investment.

12 stories 12 outlets

2 stories say getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

How should governments regulate advanced AI?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 7 →
C CNBC· 7h

China and Russia are redrawing Arctic trade. Can Europe fight back?

China and Russia are tightening their grip on Arctic shipping routes, turning the rapidly warming region into a new geopolitical battleground with Europe.

Analysis

The Trump administration is adjusting its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods by exempting some products while replacing others, prompting a new legal challenge and criticism from Canadian officials regarding increased costs for families. These trade tensions are impacting various sectors, with companies like Audi announcing new U.S. manufacturing plants to mitigate tariff exposure and steel producers in other regions reporting collateral damage. Observers are now watching for the outcome of the lawsuit against the administration's use of the Tariff Act and how ongoing diplomatic talks with nations like India and the EU will shape future trade agreements.

7 stories 7 outlets ↑ Getting worse

2 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement or maintain a tariff of 25% or higher on all imports from Canada as of February 1, 2027?
Tariff below 25% or none 61%
Tariff of 25% or more active 39%

Poll

Would you pay more for goods made in your own country?

Poll

Do tariffs on imports help or hurt your country overall?