Discuss Full coverage · 6 →
C CNBC· 5h

Oil slides over 2% as traders weigh Saudi attack risks, demand destruction

Oil prices fell as investors weighed the threat of further attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure against concerns that elevated prices could erode demand.

Analysis

Oil prices have surged following renewed tensions in the Middle East and reports of naval incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting French President Emmanuel Macron to secure additional diesel supplies from Gulf nations to address domestic fuel shortages. These supply disruptions and rising energy costs are fueling widespread protests and political instability across Europe, while global powers increasingly look to alternative refining partnerships to stabilize markets. Observers are monitoring whether these diplomatic efforts and potential U.S. strikes against Iran will further impact global crude availability and consumer prices.

6 stories 7 outlets

2 stories say getting worse, 1 story says mixed

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

How should governments respond to high fuel prices?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 15 →
C CNBC· 5h

SoftBank reportedly plans $50 billion tech investment in aspiring 'AI nation' Malaysia

SoftBank Group reportedly plans to invest $50 billion in Malaysia's technology sector, including artificial intelligence and data centers.

Analysis

Recent developments highlight growing global friction surrounding AI, ranging from market volatility and investment restrictions in China to public backlash against the environmental and social costs of data centers. These events underscore the tangible impact of AI on daily life, including cybersecurity vulnerabilities, the spread of disinformation, and shifting labor markets. Moving forward, observers are tracking how international regulatory efforts, such as the EU's push for sovereign AI and U.S. investment curbs, will balance innovation with national security and public safety concerns.

12 stories 12 outlets

2 stories say getting better, 2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

How should governments regulate advanced AI?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 70 →
C CNBC· 5h

Brazil's Lula wins historic presidential election; Bolsonaro reportedly refuses to concede

It's the first time since Brazil returned to direct elections in 1989 that a candidate has won the final runoff after losing in the first round.

Analysis

Brazil's presidential election concluded with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeating Flávio Bolsonaro, while midterm election campaigns in the U.S. continue to intensify with significant spending and legal disputes over ballot processing. These developments impact voters by shaping national leadership, influencing the balance of power in legislative bodies, and determining the integrity and accessibility of electoral processes. Observers are now monitoring the transition of power in Brazil and the final push for voter turnout in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.

12 stories 13 outlets

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Discuss Full coverage · 2 →
D DW· 1d

Trump announces Audi will build $4 billion factory in US

After Donald Trump made the announcement at an election rally in Georgia, the German carmaker confirmed plans for a factory in the US state, but noted car production would only start early next decade.

Analysis

2 developments from 3 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

2 stories 3 outlets ↓ Getting better

2 stories say getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
4.2% to 4.5% 48%
4.1% or lower 30%
4.6% or higher 23%

Poll

How secure does your job feel right now?

Forecast poll

Will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report a national unemployment rate of 4.5% or higher in a jobs report released by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Jan 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 4 →
C CNBC· 2d

Trump's executive order targets mortgage insurance, refinance costs. What it means for borrowers

Trump's executive order on housing aims to lower mortgage costs. Here's what it means for homeowners and buyers.

Analysis

4 developments from 4 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

4 stories 4 outlets ↓ Getting better

1 story says getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the United States be on February 25, 2027, according to Freddie Mac?
6.0% to 7.0% 54%
Below 6.0% 25%
Above 7.0% 21%

Poll

Should local zoning rules be loosened to allow more apartments?

Poll

What would do most to make housing affordable?