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F Federal Reserve · Monetary policy· 1d

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week, including 2 official sources.

1 stories 1 outlets 2 primary sources
Early reports

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

Should the Federal Reserve prioritize cutting the federal funds rate now to support jobs, or hold it until inflation nears 2%?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 1d

China says it will curb tech exports, including AI, citing national security risks

The proposal came as China and the U.S. made progress in dialogues over AI safety and governance and on the setting up of a notification mechanism between the two superpowers for AI incidents that could threaten national security.

Analysis

Character.ai has filed for bankruptcy following lawsuits alleging ties to teen suicides, CNN reports, and China says it will curb exports of technology, including AI, citing national security risks. For ordinary people, these stories show AI reaching into daily life, from the safety of chatbot services to entry-level jobs for young workers in India and the destruction of physical books scanned to train AI models. Watch the U.S.-China dialogues on AI safety and governance, which PBS reports have made progress, including on setting up a mechanism to notify each other of AI incidents that could threaten national security.

2 stories 2 outlets ↕ Mixed

2 stories say mixed

Early reports

Poll

Should the EU prioritize developing its own sovereign AI infrastructure over adopting existing US or Chinese models?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 1d

Democrats say Trump increased investments in drugmakers that were given Medicare exemptions

The report from congressional Democrats found that Trump's pharmaceutical stock holdings grew from a maximum reported value of $1.7 million in 2024 to as much as $56.2 million at the end of 2025.

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Poll

Should the government negotiate prices for more prescription drugs?

Poll

What is the biggest problem with healthcare where you live?

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C CNBC· 2h

Trump's Russia diesel deal may offer Putin more than money — and spell trouble for Ukraine

Trump's diesel deal may do little for Russia's finances, but it raises bigger questions about Ukraine's leverage, U.S. support and Putin's next moves.

Analysis

Russia struck civilian targets across nine Ukrainian regions as relations between Kyiv and Washington soured, with Zelensky saying Ukraine would no longer abide by Trump's demands not to strike Russian oil refineries. For Ukrainians, PBS reports fears that the rift could leave the country more exposed to escalating aerial assaults as winter approaches. Ukrainian officials also complained that SpaceX limited Starlink connectivity without notice, which Trump says the White House did not order. Watch the EU leaders' Brussels summit, where Zelensky is seeking European support, and the Nord Stream sabotage trial in Germany, where the defense is seeking dismissal.

3 stories 3 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will Ukraine and Russia sign a formal ceasefire or peace agreement by April 15, 2027?
No formal agreement 72%
Agreement signed 28%

Poll

Should the EU prioritize increasing direct military aid to Ukraine or focus on internal budget stability?

Forecast poll

Will the EU reach a formal agreement on the proposed Ukraine support budget at the Brussels summit by October 31?

Forecast · closes Oct 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 8 →
P PBS· 1d

DOJ says California officials who process ballots from suspected noncitizens risk prosecution

The Trump administration is escalating its fight with California ahead of next month's midterm election, warning that local officials who process and tabulate ballots submitted by suspected noncitizen voters are putting themselves at risk of criminal investigation and potential prosecution.

+1 more sources

Analysis

The Justice Department sued California on Thursday seeking a court order to stop the state from tabulating certain ballots it alleges came from noncitizens. It also warned that local officials who process such ballots risk criminal investigation, after Los Angeles County refused its demand to confirm the citizenship of people on a list. With the midterm election next month, the dispute affects whether some Californians' ballots are counted and the legal risk for the officials who count them, so watch how the court responds to the request and how turnout looks at the more than 3,000 No Kings events planned for Saturday to encourage early voting.

8 stories 10 outlets

2 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?