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P PBS· 13h

Capehart and Ponnuru on Trump's threat to block Alaska election results

Jonathan Capehart of MS NOW and National Review editor Ramesh Ponnuru join Geoff Bennett to discuss the week in politics, including the Trump administration's legal fight over a closely watched Senate race in Alaska, reports that Elon Musk restricted Ukraine's access to Starlink and Vivek Ramaswamy's personal ad attack

+1 more sources

Analysis

Global election cycles are intensifying as major political figures and parties ramp up spending, legal challenges, and mobilization efforts ahead of critical votes in the U.S., Brazil, and beyond. These developments highlight increasing tensions over election integrity, the influence of tech platforms on political discourse, and the rise of populist movements challenging established leadership. Observers are now monitoring how these high-stakes contests—ranging from midterm races to presidential runoffs—will reshape governance and political stability in their respective nations.

12 stories 13 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

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P PBS· 13h

Treasury proposes rule to curb high-tech investments in China and other adversaries

The U.S. Treasury Department proposed a rule Thursday to crack down on American high-tech investments such as supercomputing and artificial intelligence in China, Russia, North Korea and other "countries of concern."

Analysis

Recent developments highlight growing global friction surrounding AI, ranging from market volatility and investment restrictions in China to public backlash against the environmental and social costs of data centers. These events underscore the tangible impact of AI on daily life, including cybersecurity vulnerabilities, the spread of disinformation, and shifting labor markets. Moving forward, observers are tracking how international regulatory efforts, such as the EU's push for sovereign AI and U.S. investment curbs, will balance innovation with national security and public safety concerns.

12 stories 12 outlets

2 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

How should governments regulate advanced AI?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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C CNBC· 13h

Trump's executive order targets mortgage insurance, refinance costs. What it means for borrowers

Trump's executive order on housing aims to lower mortgage costs. Here's what it means for homeowners and buyers.

Analysis

2 developments from 2 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

2 stories 2 outlets ↓ Getting better

1 story says getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Forecast

What will the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the United States be on February 25, 2027, according to Freddie Mac?
6.0% to 7.0% 54%
Below 6.0% 25%
Above 7.0% 21%

Poll

Should local zoning rules be loosened to allow more apartments?

Poll

What would do most to make housing affordable?

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P PBS· 13h

Medicare Advantage cuts leave millions scrambling to find coverage

Health care costs are climbing, putting new pressure on millions of Americans and raising questions about the coverage they can afford. The challenges extend to Medicare Advantage. In some parts of the country, insurers are pulling out of markets or eliminating plans that many rely on. We hear from seniors struggling t

Analysis

10 developments from 10 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

10 stories 10 outlets

1 story says getting better, 1 story says mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Should the government negotiate prices for more prescription drugs?

Poll

What is the biggest problem with healthcare where you live?

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P PBS· 1d

U.S. jobless claims fell to 194,000 last week, lowest since July

So far this year, claims have remained at historically low levels, never topping 230,000 in a single week.

+1 more sources

Analysis

2 developments from 3 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

2 stories 3 outlets ↓ Getting better

2 stories say getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
4.2% to 4.5% 48%
4.1% or lower 30%
4.6% or higher 23%

Poll

Should the U.S. federal government expand funding for job retraining programs for workers displaced by automation?

Forecast poll

Will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report a national unemployment rate of 4.5% or higher in a jobs report released by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Jan 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.