Discuss Full coverage · 2 →
P PBS· 13h

U.S. jobless claims fell to 194,000 last week, lowest since July

So far this year, claims have remained at historically low levels, never topping 230,000 in a single week.

+1 more sources

Analysis

2 developments from 3 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

2 stories 3 outlets ↓ Getting better

2 stories say getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
4.2% to 4.5% 48%
4.1% or lower 30%
4.6% or higher 23%

Poll

Should the U.S. federal government expand funding for job retraining programs for workers displaced by automation?

Forecast poll

Will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report a national unemployment rate of 4.5% or higher in a jobs report released by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Jan 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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T The Guardian· 7h

Sharp drops for AI stocks overwhelm markets worldwide as oil prices jump

Datacenter and chip costs fueled sharp decrease in AI sector although non-AI stocks still had a strong showingThe latest shudder for stocks in the AI industry pulled markets lower worldwide on Thursday, while oil prices hit their highest levels since May on worries about the war with Iran.The S&P 500 fell 1.2% for its

Analysis

Character.ai has filed for bankruptcy following lawsuits alleging ties to teen suicides, CNN reports, and China says it will curb exports of technology, including AI, citing national security risks. For ordinary people, these stories show AI reaching into daily life, from the safety of chatbot services to entry-level jobs for young workers in India and the destruction of physical books scanned to train AI models. Watch the U.S.-China dialogues on AI safety and governance, which PBS reports have made progress, including on setting up a mechanism to notify each other of AI incidents that could threaten national security.

12 stories 12 outlets

2 stories say mixed, 2 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

Should the EU prioritize developing its own sovereign AI infrastructure over adopting existing US or Chinese models?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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C CNBC· 1h

10-year Treasury yield tumbles below 5% to lowest level in nearly a month

Treasury yields dove dramatically lower on Thursday as investors monitored a slump in stocks and surging oil prices.

Analysis

6 developments from 6 outlets in the past week, including 2 official sources. Recent evidence leans mixed.

6 stories 6 outlets 2 primary sources

1 story says mixed, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

Should the Federal Reserve prioritize cutting the federal funds rate now to support jobs, or hold it until inflation nears 2%?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 12 →
P PBS· 1h

RFK Jr. adviser Calley Means resigns amid growing MAHA discontent over lack of progress

Calley Means, a top adviser to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and a chief advocate for the Make America Healthy Again movement, resigned from his position with the Trump administration Thursday.

Analysis

Ebola cases have been confirmed in Nigeria and Kenya, with the WHO warning that the outbreak is becoming more complex as it spreads across multiple African nations. These developments raise urgent concerns about regional public health preparedness and border controls for travelers and local populations. Observers are now monitoring whether containment efforts in affected provinces and countries can successfully halt the virus's further transmission.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By February 28, 2027, how many countries other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo will have reported at least one laboratory-confirmed Ebola case linked to the current Congo outbreak?
One or two countries 45%
Three or four countries 35%
Five or more countries 21%

Poll

Should countries share outbreak data with the WHO even when it's politically awkward?

Poll

If a new outbreak spread widely, which measures would you support?

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C CNBC· 7h

Trump asked Musk to lift Starlink slowdown, WSJ reports

Elon Musk, a critic of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had ordered the slowdown of SpaceX's Starlink, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

Analysis

Tensions between Kyiv and Washington have escalated as President Trump waives new Russia sanctions and accuses President Zelenskyy of prolonging the war, while both nations continue to trade heavy drone and missile strikes. This diplomatic rift raises concerns about Ukraine's security as the winter approaches and European leaders meet to discuss continued support for Kyiv. Observers are watching to see if the ongoing EU summit results in new aid commitments and how the strained U.S.-Ukraine relationship impacts the battlefield.

12 stories 12 outlets ↑ Getting worse

2 stories say getting worse, 1 story says mixed

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will Ukraine and Russia sign a formal ceasefire or peace agreement by April 15, 2027?
No formal agreement 72%
Agreement signed 28%

Poll

Should the EU prioritize increasing direct military aid to Ukraine or focus on internal budget stability?

Forecast poll

Will the EU reach a formal agreement on the proposed Ukraine support budget at the Brussels summit by October 31?

Forecast · closes Oct 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.