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C CNBC· 1h

Oil prices climb as traders assess Middle East developments

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Tuesday that naval mines had prevented three tankers attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysis

Global fuel markets remain volatile as geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz drive up crude prices, while European leaders like Emmanuel Macron scramble to secure alternative diesel supplies to mitigate domestic cost-of-living protests. These supply disruptions and rising energy costs are fueling political unrest across Europe and causing localized fuel shortages in regions like Bali. Observers are now watching whether recent diplomatic efforts, including U.S. agreements to import Russian diesel, will effectively stabilize prices or if the current inflationary pressure on households and businesses will persist.

5 stories 5 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

Should the US ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports to help lower global fuel prices?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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C CNBC· 7h

Japan exports post huge miss in September as growth slows to 16.7%

Analysis

4 developments from 4 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

4 stories 4 outlets

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement or maintain a tariff of 25% or higher on all imports from Canada as of February 1, 2027?
Tariff below 25% or none 61%
Tariff of 25% or more active 39%

Poll

Would you pay more for goods made in your own country?

Poll

Do tariffs on imports help or hurt your country overall?

Discuss Full coverage · 30 →
T The Guardian· 7h

Michael Bloomberg spends $80m on Democrats as Trump moves $400m to Republican candidates

Billionaire ex-mayor of New York City is focusing funds on House races to help Democrats retake majority in midtermsUS politics live – latest updatesThe billionaire Michael Bloomberg will spend $80m to help Democratic candidates in the midterm elections, US media reported on Tuesday, a significant infusion of cash for

+1 more sources

Analysis

Recent developments show intensified election-related legal and financial activity, ranging from massive campaign spending in the U.S. to electoral court interventions in Brazil and disputes over voter eligibility in California. These actions impact voters by shaping the information they receive, influencing the fairness of ballot processing, and determining the resources available to candidates. Observers should watch for the outcomes of the upcoming Brazilian runoff election and the legal resolution of California's voter list disputes.

12 stories 13 outlets

3 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

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C CNBC· 7h

September data shows housing market in a deep freeze

New data on the housing market's performance in September is bleak, with sales, construction and sentiment all falling more than expected.

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Forecast

What will the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the United States be on February 25, 2027, according to Freddie Mac?
6.0% to 7.0% 54%
Below 6.0% 25%
Above 7.0% 21%

Poll

Should local zoning rules be loosened to allow more apartments?

Poll

What would do most to make housing affordable?

Discuss Full coverage · 10 →
P PBS· 7h

Zelenskyy seeks to mend ties with Trump ahead of Witkoff-Putin meeting

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and European officials in Norway in a bid to avoid a further diplomatic rupture with President Trump. Over the past week, Trump has criticized Zelenskyy over Ukraine's efforts to inflict heavy losses on Russia. The meeting was aimed at easing tensions ahea

Analysis

Tensions between Kyiv and Washington have escalated following President Trump's decision to waive Russia sanctions and his public criticism of President Zelenskyy, while Russia continues to launch widespread aerial strikes on Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure. These diplomatic rifts and the resulting uncertainty over U.S. intelligence sharing and military support threaten to leave Ukraine increasingly vulnerable as winter approaches. Observers are now watching for the outcome of Zelenskyy's efforts to rally European allies and his attempts to mend diplomatic ties with the U.S. administration.

10 stories 10 outlets ↑ Getting worse

3 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will Ukraine and Russia sign a formal ceasefire or peace agreement by April 15, 2027?
No formal agreement 72%
Agreement signed 28%

Poll

Should the EU prioritize increasing direct military aid to Ukraine or focus on internal budget stability?

Forecast poll

Will the EU reach a formal agreement on the proposed Ukraine support budget at the Brussels summit by October 31?

Forecast · closes Oct 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.