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T The Guardian· 1h

Michael Bloomberg spends $80m on Democrats as Trump moves $400m to Republican candidates

Billionaire ex-mayor of New York City is focusing funds on House races to help Democrats retake majority in midtermsUS politics live – latest updatesThe billionaire Michael Bloomberg will spend $80m to help Democratic candidates in the midterm elections, US media reported on Tuesday, a significant infusion of cash for

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Analysis

Global electoral tensions are rising as the U.S. Department of Justice sues California over ballot processing procedures and Brazilian authorities demand Meta ensure equal treatment for presidential candidates. These developments highlight intensifying scrutiny over election integrity and social media's role in political discourse, impacting how citizens access information and cast their votes. Moving forward, observers are watching for the outcomes of these legal challenges and the impact of ongoing protests and populist shifts on upcoming elections in the U.S., Brazil, and beyond.

12 stories 13 outlets

3 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

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C CNBC· 1h

Japan exports post huge miss in September as growth slows to 16.7%

Analysis

4 developments from 4 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

4 stories 4 outlets

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement or maintain a tariff of 25% or higher on all imports from Canada as of February 1, 2027?
Tariff below 25% or none 61%
Tariff of 25% or more active 39%

Poll

Would you pay more for goods made in your own country?

Poll

Do tariffs on imports help or hurt your country overall?

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P PBS· 1h

Zelenskyy seeks to mend ties with Trump ahead of Witkoff-Putin meeting

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and European officials in Norway in a bid to avoid a further diplomatic rupture with President Trump. Over the past week, Trump has criticized Zelenskyy over Ukraine's efforts to inflict heavy losses on Russia. The meeting was aimed at easing tensions ahea

Analysis

Tensions between Washington and Kyiv have escalated sharply as President Trump waives new sanctions on Russia and accuses President Zelenskyy of prolonging the war, while Ukraine faces intensified Russian aerial strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure. These diplomatic rifts, coupled with Zelenskyy's accusations that the U.S. is delaying critical air defense shipments, raise concerns about Ukraine's ability to defend itself against winter attacks. Observers are now watching for the outcome of the EU summit in Brussels, where Zelenskyy is seeking to rally European support amid the deepening strain in U.S.-Ukraine relations.

10 stories 10 outlets ↑ Getting worse

3 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will Ukraine and Russia sign a formal ceasefire or peace agreement by April 15, 2027?
No formal agreement 72%
Agreement signed 28%

Poll

Should the EU prioritize increasing direct military aid to Ukraine or focus on internal budget stability?

Forecast poll

Will the EU reach a formal agreement on the proposed Ukraine support budget at the Brussels summit by October 31?

Forecast · closes Oct 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 1h

News Wrap: Britain sending air support to Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacks

In our news wrap Tuesday, British authorities say they're sending air support to Saudi Arabia to protect against missiles and drones launched by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, Vice President Vance says he's not endorsing Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Israeli elections and voters in Alberta overwhelmingly rejected a

Analysis

Escalating regional tensions are marked by Egypt pledging support to Saudi Arabia against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, while the U.S. reportedly weighs using its largest non-nuclear bomb against Iran amid a diplomatic deadlock. These developments threaten to widen the conflict, potentially impacting regional stability and global oil security as Saudi assets face increased drone attacks. Observers are monitoring whether diplomatic efforts can break the current impasse or if military escalation will intensify.

10 stories 10 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States conduct a direct military strike against Iranian territory by March 1, 2027?
No US strike occurs 72%
Yes, US strike occurs 28%

Poll

What is the best way to reduce the risk of a wider Middle East war?

Poll

Should the US take military action if Iran moves closer to a nuclear weapon?

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C CNBC· 1h

September data shows housing market in a deep freeze

New data on the housing market's performance in September is bleak, with sales, construction and sentiment all falling more than expected.

Analysis

1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Forecast

What will the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the United States be on February 25, 2027, according to Freddie Mac?
6.0% to 7.0% 54%
Below 6.0% 25%
Above 7.0% 21%

Poll

Should local zoning rules be loosened to allow more apartments?

Poll

What would do most to make housing affordable?