Discuss Full coverage · 20 →
T The Guardian· 5h

Economic relief is on the way, Democrats say. But what, how and when?

Winning candidates promised to cut costs, rein in corporations, curb billionaire power and improve the economyDon’t worry, cash-strapped Americans, “relief is on the way”, the senator Chuck Schumer promised last week in a press conference celebrating Democrats’ massive midterms win.Winning candidates promised to cut fo

Analysis

12 developments from 12 outlets in the past week.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Have you delayed care in the past year because of cost?

Forecast poll

Will federal courts permanently strike down Medicaid work requirement rules by the end of the year?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 11 →
T The Guardian· 5h

We can’t just ‘move on’: Democrats must hold Trump accountable | Jan-Werner Müller

The new Congress cannot maintain the culture of political impunity that got us here in the first placeFresh from an overwhelming victory, Democrats might quickly divide over what should be seen as unnecessary fracture.Establishment figures demand a focus on “kitchen table issues”, while others insist that successful ca

Analysis

11 developments from 11 outlets in the past week.

11 stories 11 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027?
2.5% to 2.9% 34%
3.0% to 3.4% 26%
Below 2.5% 24%

Poll

Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?

Poll

Compared with a year ago, is your household better or worse off?

Discuss Full coverage · 12 →
T The Guardian· 5h

Trump tells 60 Minutes that deportation policy was ‘too tough’

President makes unusual acknowledgement that one of the defining policies of his second administration had become a political liabilityDonald Trump has admitted that his deportation policy was “too tough” and has offered to strike an immigration deal with Democrats in a concession following the Republicans’ disastrous

Analysis

Recent reports highlight growing scrutiny over the treatment of detainees, including investigations into the detention of U.S. citizens and demands for data on pregnancy-related medical issues within ICE facilities. These developments are significant as public disapproval of the current administration's immigration crackdown rises, potentially impacting political campaigns and the rights of both citizens and residents. Observers should watch for further congressional inquiries into detention conditions and potential legal challenges regarding the scope of federal immigration enforcement powers.

12 stories 13 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?
No large-scale program 72%
Program implemented 28%

Poll

Should asylum claims be processed outside the country?

Forecast poll

Will the Supreme Court rule to allow judges to quickly reverse immigration detentions by January 25, 2027?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 138 →
C CNBC· 5h

Congress returns with government funding, Pete Hegseth and the debt limit on the agenda

Republicans have less than two months left with majorities in both the Senate and the House — and a long list of legislation to take up in the coming weeks.

Analysis

Recent elections in Brazil, Israel, and Serbia have resulted in significant political shifts, including a presidential victory for Lula in Brazil and a deadlocked parliamentary outcome in Israel. These developments impact governance and stability in their respective regions, with ongoing concerns regarding election integrity and the peaceful transfer of power. Observers are now watching for the resolution of government formation in Israel and the legal and political fallout surrounding the post-election situation in Brazil.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Poll

Should there be age limits for top elected offices?

Discuss Full coverage · 9 →
T The Guardian· 5h

Trump’s pathetic Dana White gambit could not mask his midterm humiliation | Howard Bryant

Trump has long relied on sports to project strength and fuel his culture wars. But after a crushing midterm defeat, even his UFC ally cannot distract from the political falloutIn the wake of being destroyed in the midterm elections, it was only a matter of time before Donald Trump did something outrageous in an attempt

Analysis

Oil and natural gas prices are surging globally as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine threaten supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt refinery operations. These rising energy costs are driving up fuel prices for consumers, fueling cost-of-living protests across Europe, and boosting record profits for major oil companies. Investors and policymakers are now closely monitoring whether diplomatic efforts to secure new supplies can stabilize markets or if further escalations will continue to constrain energy availability.

9 stories 9 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

Should your country produce more of its own oil and gas?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.