Discuss Full coverage · 17 →
C CNBC· 47m

Why the prognosis for healthcare stocks is uncertain ahead of Congress’ new makeup

Healthcare stocks may struggle to find momentum as the Democrats get ready to take over Congress.

Analysis

12 developments from 14 outlets in the past week.

12 stories 14 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Should employer-provided health plans be required to cover GLP-1 weight-loss drugs?

Forecast poll

Will federal courts permanently strike down Medicaid work requirement rules by the end of the year?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 13 →
C CNBC· 47m

Tech companies face mounting child safety lawsuits while pushing AI into schools

Lawsuits against Snap, Meta and Google are creating headwinds for tech companies just as artificial intelligence tools expand into classrooms.

Analysis

Recent developments highlight a growing tension between AI's rapid expansion and its societal costs, ranging from market volatility and cybersecurity vulnerabilities to public backlash against the environmental impact of data centers. These events underscore the increasing scrutiny of AI's influence on national security, political discourse, and personal safety, as governments and communities push for greater oversight. Moving forward, observers are tracking how international regulatory efforts, investment restrictions, and local opposition to infrastructure projects will shape the future of the AI industry.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

Should AI-generated images and video be required to carry a label?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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C CNBC· 47m

America's newest small business owners with no employees are off to a hot start in AI era

New small business formation is rising for owners who can grow with AI serving in finance, marketing and design roles, eliminating the need for hiring.

Analysis

7 developments from 7 outlets in the past week.

7 stories 7 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
4.2% to 4.5% 48%
4.1% or lower 30%
4.6% or higher 23%

Poll

How secure does your job feel right now?

Forecast poll

Will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report a national unemployment rate of 4.5% or higher in a jobs report released by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Jan 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 5 →
T The Guardian· 47m

‘People are active, they are fed up’: young voters fueled the Democratic wave

After helping Trump to victory in 2024, young voters swung decisively toward Democrats, helping deliver a wave of midterm victoriesThe 2026 blue tsunami owes a lot to the youth vote.According to data from Tufts University’s Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (Circle), which monitors yout

Analysis

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady despite internal dissent and ongoing inflation concerns, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced she will step down early. These decisions influence consumer borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans, and signal potential shifts in global monetary policy. Investors are now watching for future rate adjustments from the Bank of Japan and potential policy changes following the leadership transition at the ECB.

5 stories 5 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

Should central banks be more worried about inflation or jobs right now?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 47m

In his words: Stephen Miller is an immigration hardliner and a bombastic critic of Democrats

An outspoken defender of President Donald Trump's most far-reaching goals to remake government going back to his 2016 run for president, Miller is known for his harsh language and unapologetic bombast.

Analysis

Recent reports highlight growing scrutiny over the treatment of detainees, including investigations into the detention of U.S. citizens and demands for data on pregnancy-related medical issues within ICE facilities. These developments are significant as public disapproval of the current administration's immigration crackdown rises, potentially impacting political campaigns and the rights of both citizens and residents. Observers should watch for further congressional inquiries into detention conditions and potential legal challenges regarding the scope of federal immigration enforcement powers.

10 stories 10 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?
No large-scale program 72%
Program implemented 28%

Poll

Should the U.S. government prioritize granting deportation reprieves to specific groups over general enforcement?

Forecast poll

Will the Supreme Court rule to allow judges to quickly reverse immigration detentions by January 25, 2027?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.