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C CNBC· 5d

Fed officials are already saying they’ll need to get back to hiking rates

The comments from Federal Reserve Presidents Alberto Musalem and Lorie Logan offer the first morsels of insight into what leaders at the Fed see happening next.

Analysis

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady despite internal dissent and ongoing inflation concerns, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced she will step down early. These decisions influence consumer borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans, and signal potential shifts in global monetary policy. Investors are now watching for future rate adjustments from the Bank of Japan and potential policy changes following the leadership transition at the ECB.

5 stories 5 outlets

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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C CNBC· 41m

Barkin sees interest rate hikes ahead, but at a gradual pace

In a CNBC interview, the policymaker expressed concern over inflation and said monetary policy will need to adjust.

Analysis

10 developments from 10 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

10 stories 10 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027?
2.5% to 2.9% 34%
3.0% to 3.4% 26%
Below 2.5% 24%

Poll

Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?

Poll

Compared with a year ago, is your household better or worse off?

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T The Guardian· 41m

Nasdaq heading for worst day in 18 months as Wall Street sustains widespread losses

Share index slumps 5% amid signs AI industry will face tougher regulation after Democrats’ midterm elections successThe tech-heavy US Nasdaq share index is on track for its worst day in 18 months after slumping by up to 5% on Thursday amid growing signs that the artificial intelligence industry will face tougher regula

Analysis

Recent developments highlight a growing tension between AI's rapid expansion and its societal costs, ranging from market volatility and cybersecurity vulnerabilities to public backlash against the environmental impact of data centers. These events underscore the increasing scrutiny of AI's influence on national security, political discourse, and personal safety, as governments and communities push for greater oversight. Moving forward, observers are tracking how international regulatory efforts, investment restrictions, and local opposition to infrastructure projects will shape the future of the AI industry.

10 stories 10 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

How should governments regulate advanced AI?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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T The Guardian· 41m

Heavy rains bring flash flooding to Georgia-Tennessee border area

National Weather Service issues flood warning: ‘Seek higher ground now!’Severe storms brought heavy rain and flash flooding to communities across the Georgia-Tennessee border area late on Wednesday and into Thursday morning that forced dozens of rescues, despite the hazardous conditions making evacuations and efforts t

Analysis

Recent reports highlight a surge in extreme weather events, including devastating wildfires in Indonesia, deadly storms in the UK, and typhoons in Taiwan, which are disrupting daily life through school closures, power outages, and travel delays. These events coincide with scientific warnings that 96% of coral reefs face collapse and that global health is increasingly threatened by climate-linked heat and drought. Observers are now monitoring the potential for further policy shifts regarding environmental regulations and the ongoing global efforts to address rising emissions and temperature limits.

5 stories 5 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027?
Second warmest on record 41%
Third warmest or lower 39%
Warmest year on record 20%

Poll

Who should pay most for climate damage?

Poll

Would you accept higher energy bills to cut emissions faster?

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P PBS· 41m

Alaskans are waiting for more votes in Senate and governor's races. Both could go to ranked tabulations

Alaskans settled in Wednesday to await more results from key races on the general election ballot, including a bitterly fought U.S. Senate campaign and an open seat for governor.

Analysis

Recent elections in Brazil, Israel, and Serbia have resulted in significant political shifts, including a presidential victory for Lula in Brazil and a deadlocked parliamentary outcome in Israel. These developments impact governance and stability in their respective regions, with ongoing concerns regarding election integrity and the peaceful transfer of power. Observers are now watching for the resolution of government formation in Israel and the legal and political fallout surrounding the post-election situation in Brazil.

12 stories 12 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Poll

Should there be age limits for top elected offices?