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C CNBC· 5d

Fed officials are already saying they’ll need to get back to hiking rates

The comments from Federal Reserve Presidents Alberto Musalem and Lorie Logan offer the first morsels of insight into what leaders at the Fed see happening next.

Analysis

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady despite internal dissent and ongoing inflation concerns, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced she will step down early. These decisions influence consumer borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans, and signal potential shifts in global monetary policy. Investors are now watching for future rate adjustments from the Bank of Japan and potential policy changes following the leadership transition at the ECB.

5 stories 5 outlets

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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C CNBC· 1h

OpenAI pledges to pay for data center power after election highlights AI concerns

OpenAI pledged to solicit community input around AI data centers, publish construction plans and protect ratepayers.

Analysis

Recent developments highlight a growing tension between AI's rapid expansion and its societal costs, ranging from market volatility and cybersecurity vulnerabilities to public backlash against the environmental impact of data centers. These events underscore the increasing scrutiny of AI's influence on national security, political discourse, and personal safety, as governments and communities push for greater oversight. Moving forward, observers are tracking how international regulatory efforts, investment restrictions, and local opposition to infrastructure projects will shape the future of the AI industry.

9 stories 9 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

How should governments regulate advanced AI?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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C CNBC· 1h

Democrats take Congress in a blue wave. Here's what it means for your money

Blue wave gives Democrats control of Congress. Here's how their agenda could affect your money, from healthcare and taxes to student loans and Social Security.

Analysis

12 developments from 14 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

12 stories 14 outlets

1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Should employer-provided health plans be required to cover GLP-1 weight-loss drugs?

Forecast poll

Will federal courts permanently strike down Medicaid work requirement rules by the end of the year?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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T The Guardian· 1h

Poundland’s US owner says retailer remains ‘vulnerable’, after talks with ministers

Gordon Brothers still in ‘active discussions’ with interested parties and seeking to ‘protect as many jobs as possible’The US owner of Poundland has said the high street chain remains “challenged and vulnerable” after holding talks with ministers amid government criticism of its handling of the retailer.Gordon Brothers

Analysis

3 developments from 3 outlets in the past week.

3 stories 3 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
4.2% to 4.5% 48%
4.1% or lower 30%
4.6% or higher 23%

Poll

How secure does your job feel right now?

Forecast poll

Will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report a national unemployment rate of 4.5% or higher in a jobs report released by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Jan 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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C CNBC· 1h

Consumers are spending on physical gifts even as travel tops wish lists, Visa survey finds

Even as travel and experiences top the wish list, consumers are still prioritizing spending on physical gifts this holiday season.

Analysis

Recent reports highlight growing scrutiny over the treatment of detainees, including investigations into the detention of U.S. citizens and demands for data on pregnancy-related medical issues within ICE facilities. These developments are significant as public disapproval of the current administration's immigration crackdown rises, potentially impacting political campaigns and the rights of both citizens and residents. Observers should watch for further congressional inquiries into detention conditions and potential legal challenges regarding the scope of federal immigration enforcement powers.

8 stories 8 outlets

3 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?
No large-scale program 72%
Program implemented 28%

Poll

Should the U.S. government prioritize granting deportation reprieves to specific groups over general enforcement?

Forecast poll

Will the Supreme Court rule to allow judges to quickly reverse immigration detentions by January 25, 2027?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.