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C CNBC· 1d

Fed officials are already saying they’ll need to get back to hiking rates

The comments from Federal Reserve Presidents Alberto Musalem and Lorie Logan offer the first morsels of insight into what leaders at the Fed see happening next.

Analysis

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady despite internal dissent and ongoing inflation concerns, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced she will step down early. These decisions influence consumer borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans, and signal potential shifts in global monetary policy. Investors are now watching for future rate adjustments from the Bank of Japan and potential policy changes following the leadership transition at the ECB.

12 stories 13 outlets 1 primary source

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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T The Guardian· 1d

Democratic lawmakers demand ICE data on detainee miscarriages

ICE failed to record data on miscarriages suffered by immigrants in its custody between October 2025 and June 2026US lawmakers are urgently demanding that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) disclose how many pregnant immigrants have experienced miscarriages, stillbirths and pregnancy-related hospitalizations whi

Analysis

Recent reports highlight growing scrutiny over the treatment of detainees, including investigations into the detention of U.S. citizens and demands for data on pregnancy-related medical issues within ICE facilities. These developments are significant as public disapproval of the current administration's immigration crackdown rises, potentially impacting political campaigns and the rights of both citizens and residents. Observers should watch for further congressional inquiries into detention conditions and potential legal challenges regarding the scope of federal immigration enforcement powers.

8 stories 8 outlets

4 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?
No large-scale program 72%
Program implemented 28%

Poll

Should the U.S. government prioritize granting deportation reprieves to specific groups over general enforcement?

Forecast poll

Will the Supreme Court rule to allow judges to quickly reverse immigration detentions by January 25, 2027?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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C CNBC· 1d

Tech giants need legacy businesses to keep growing as they pour trillions into the AI buildout

Hyperscalers continue spending big on artificial intelligence, putting pressure on their legacy businesses and impacting their free cash flow.

Analysis

Recent developments highlight a growing tension between AI's rapid expansion and its societal costs, ranging from market volatility and cybersecurity vulnerabilities to public backlash against the environmental impact of data centers. These events underscore the increasing scrutiny of AI's influence on national security, political discourse, and personal safety, as governments and communities push for greater oversight. Moving forward, observers are tracking how international regulatory efforts, investment restrictions, and local opposition to infrastructure projects will shape the future of the AI industry.

11 stories 11 outlets

2 stories say getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

How should governments regulate advanced AI?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 2d

New survey finds more than two-thirds of Americans believe their country is in decline

Almost half of Americans, 47%, say they are experiencing real pain from rising prices – a sharp rise from previous years.

Analysis

10 developments from 10 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

10 stories 10 outlets

3 stories say getting worse, 1 story says mixed

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate for December 2026 be, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by January 31, 2027?
2.5% to 2.9% 34%
3.0% to 3.4% 26%
Below 2.5% 24%

Poll

Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?

Poll

Compared with a year ago, is your household better or worse off?

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P PBS· 2d

Judge blocks Trump administration's Medicaid work requirement rule forcing proof of medical frailty

Twenty-five states sued the Trump administration in June over the new Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services guidance tied to the 2025 law known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill."

Analysis

9 developments from 9 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting better.

9 stories 9 outlets

1 story says getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Should employer-provided health plans be required to cover GLP-1 weight-loss drugs?

Forecast poll

Will federal courts permanently strike down Medicaid work requirement rules by the end of the year?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.