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C CNBC· 1h

Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran aimed at restarting direct U.S.-Iran negotiations, source says

Axios reported that Qatari mediators held more than 12 hours of talks in Tehran on Friday to reach a deal to avoid a resumption of American-led attacks on Iran.

Analysis

Regional diplomatic efforts are intensifying as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan hold talks with Iran to prevent further conflict, while the U.S. continues to signal both potential military action and a willingness to restart negotiations. These developments create significant uncertainty for global energy security and regional stability, particularly following reports of attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing Houthi strikes. Observers are now watching for Iran's response to diplomatic overtures from the U.S. and the outcome of ongoing mediation efforts by Qatar.

12 stories 13 outlets

3 stories say getting worse, 2 stories say getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States conduct a direct military strike against Iranian territory by March 1, 2027?
No US strike occurs 72%
Yes, US strike occurs 28%

Poll

Should the US take military action if Iran moves closer to a nuclear weapon?

Poll

If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, who should keep it open?

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C CNBC· 1d

Fed officials are already saying they’ll need to get back to hiking rates

The comments from Federal Reserve Presidents Alberto Musalem and Lorie Logan offer the first morsels of insight into what leaders at the Fed see happening next.

Analysis

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady despite internal dissent and ongoing inflation concerns, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced she will step down early. These decisions influence consumer borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans, and signal potential shifts in global monetary policy. Investors are now watching for future rate adjustments from the Bank of Japan and potential policy changes following the leadership transition at the ECB.

12 stories 13 outlets 1 primary source

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 1h

Attorneys for Alaska say 'meritless' Trump demand to set aside Senate ballots 'not even possible'

The Department of Justice on Friday added a request that the judge separate all ballots showing votes for the second Dan Sullivan until it can be determined whether voters were fooled into wasting their votes for a spoiler candidate.

Analysis

Recent elections in Brazil, Israel, and Serbia have resulted in significant political shifts, including a presidential victory for Lula in Brazil and a deadlocked parliamentary outcome in Israel. These results impact governance and stability for millions of citizens, as contested outcomes and legal challenges continue to unfold in Brazil and the United States. Observers are now monitoring the potential for government formation in Israel and the ongoing legal and political fallout surrounding the Brazilian election results.

12 stories 14 outlets

2 stories say getting better, 2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Poll

Should there be age limits for top elected offices?

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T The Guardian· 1d

Democratic lawmakers demand ICE data on detainee miscarriages

ICE failed to record data on miscarriages suffered by immigrants in its custody between October 2025 and June 2026US lawmakers are urgently demanding that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) disclose how many pregnant immigrants have experienced miscarriages, stillbirths and pregnancy-related hospitalizations whi

Analysis

Recent reports highlight growing scrutiny of U.S. immigration enforcement, including investigations into the detention of U.S. citizens, the treatment of hunger strikers, and missing data regarding miscarriages in ICE custody. These developments raise significant concerns about civil liberties and government accountability, as public disapproval of the current administration's immigration crackdown continues to rise. Observers are now watching for potential congressional oversight actions and legal challenges, including a Supreme Court case regarding the speed of reversing immigration detentions.

7 stories 7 outlets

4 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?
No large-scale program 72%
Program implemented 28%

Poll

Should long-term undocumented residents have a path to legal status?

Poll

What should immigration policy prioritise?

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C CNBC· 1d

Tech giants need legacy businesses to keep growing as they pour trillions into the AI buildout

Hyperscalers continue spending big on artificial intelligence, putting pressure on their legacy businesses and impacting their free cash flow.

Analysis

Recent developments highlight a growing tension between AI's rapid expansion and its societal costs, ranging from market volatility and cybersecurity vulnerabilities to public backlash against the environmental impact of data centers. These events underscore the increasing scrutiny of AI's influence on national security, political discourse, and personal safety, as governments and communities push for greater oversight. Moving forward, observers are tracking how international regulatory efforts, investment restrictions, and local opposition to infrastructure projects will shape the future of the AI industry.

11 stories 11 outlets

2 stories say getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

How should governments regulate advanced AI?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.