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C CNBC· 14h

Fed officials are already saying they’ll need to get back to hiking rates

The comments from Federal Reserve Presidents Alberto Musalem and Lorie Logan offer the first morsels of insight into what leaders at the Fed see happening next.

Analysis

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady despite internal dissent and ongoing inflation concerns, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced she will step down early. These decisions influence consumer borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans, and signal potential shifts in global monetary policy. Investors are now watching for future rate adjustments from the Bank of Japan and potential policy changes following the leadership transition at the ECB.

12 stories 13 outlets 1 primary source

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 15 →
C CNBC· 14h

Tankers defy sharp escalation of Iranian attacks to keep crude oil flowing through Strait of Hormuz

Soaring freight rates are giving tankers a big financial incentive to run the gauntlet through the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysis

Oil and natural gas prices are surging as escalating conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on energy infrastructure threaten global supply chains, pushing European gas prices to their highest levels since 2022. These rising energy costs are fueling inflation and cost-of-living protests across Europe, while simultaneously driving record profits for major oil companies. Investors and consumers should monitor the stability of the Strait of Hormuz and potential diplomatic efforts to secure alternative fuel supplies.

12 stories 12 outlets

4 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

How should governments respond to high fuel prices?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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T The Guardian· 14h

Democratic lawmakers demand ICE data on detainee miscarriages

ICE failed to record data on miscarriages suffered by immigrants in its custody between October 2025 and June 2026US lawmakers are urgently demanding that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) disclose how many pregnant immigrants have experienced miscarriages, stillbirths and pregnancy-related hospitalizations whi

Analysis

Recent reports highlight growing scrutiny of U.S. immigration enforcement, including investigations into the detention of U.S. citizens, the treatment of hunger strikers, and missing data regarding miscarriages in ICE custody. These developments raise significant concerns about civil liberties and government accountability, as public disapproval of the current administration's immigration crackdown continues to rise. Observers are now watching for potential congressional oversight actions and legal challenges, including a Supreme Court case regarding the speed of reversing immigration detentions.

8 stories 8 outlets

5 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?
No large-scale program 72%
Program implemented 28%

Poll

Should long-term undocumented residents have a path to legal status?

Poll

What should immigration policy prioritise?

Discuss Full coverage · 90 →
T The Guardian· 8h

Federal judge bars DoJ from threatening election workers to stop processing ballots

Order says local officials can’t be forced to separate or stop counting ballots that the government deems to be disputedA federal judge has barred the justice department from threatening or coercing election workers to stop processing ballots.The order issued late Friday also bars the justice department from demanding

Analysis

Recent elections in Brazil, Israel, and Serbia have resulted in significant political shifts, including a presidential victory for Lula in Brazil and the ousting of Serbia's longtime leader, while Israel's election remains deadlocked. These outcomes impact global stability and domestic governance, with ongoing tensions in Brazil as the Bolsonaro family faces legal scrutiny and disputes over the election results. Observers are now watching for the formation of new governments in Israel and Serbia, as well as the potential influence of U.S. political involvement in upcoming midterm and Senate races.

12 stories 14 outlets

2 stories say getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Poll

Should there be age limits for top elected offices?

Discuss Full coverage · 10 →
C CNBC· 14h

Tech giants need legacy businesses to keep growing as they pour trillions into the AI buildout

Hyperscalers continue spending big on artificial intelligence, putting pressure on their legacy businesses and impacting their free cash flow.

Analysis

Recent developments highlight a growing tension between AI's rapid expansion and its societal costs, ranging from market volatility and cybersecurity vulnerabilities to public backlash against the environmental impact of data centers. These events underscore the increasing scrutiny of AI's influence on national security, political discourse, and personal safety, as governments and communities push for greater oversight. Moving forward, observers are tracking how international regulatory efforts, investment restrictions, and local opposition to infrastructure projects will shape the future of the AI industry.

10 stories 10 outlets

2 stories say getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States or the European Union implement new restrictions on the export or use of Chinese-developed AI models by March 31, 2027?
New restrictions implemented 58%
No new restrictions 42%

Poll

How should governments regulate advanced AI?

Forecast poll

Will the EU pass new legislation specifically regulating the use of copyrighted books for AI training by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 14
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.