Discuss Full coverage · 14 →
C CNBC· 7h

Tankers defy sharp escalation of Iranian attacks to keep crude oil flowing through Strait of Hormuz

Soaring freight rates are giving tankers a big financial incentive to run the gauntlet through the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysis

Global oil and natural gas prices are surging as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war threaten critical supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure. These rising costs are driving up fuel prices for households, fueling political unrest across Europe, and boosting profits for major oil companies. Investors and consumers are now watching for further escalations in the Middle East and potential government interventions to stabilize energy supplies.

12 stories 12 outlets

4 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the front-month Brent crude oil futures settlement price be on January 15, 2027?
$90 to $110 per barrel 37%
Above $110 per barrel 34%
Below $90 per barrel 30%

Poll

How should governments respond to high fuel prices?

Forecast poll

Will Brent crude settle below $100 per barrel on any trading day before 2025-07-31?

Forecast · closes Nov 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 91 →
T The Guardian· 1h

Federal judge bars DoJ from threatening election workers to stop processing ballots

Order says local officials can’t be forced to separate or stop counting ballots that the government deems to be disputedA federal judge has barred the justice department from threatening or coercing election workers to stop processing ballots.The order issued late Friday also bars the justice department from demanding

Analysis

Recent elections in Brazil, Israel, and Serbia have resulted in significant political shifts, including a presidential victory for Lula in Brazil and the ousting of Serbia's longtime leader, while Israel's election remains deadlocked. These outcomes impact global stability and domestic governance, with ongoing tensions in Brazil as the Bolsonaro family faces legal scrutiny and disputes over the election results. Observers are now watching for the formation of new governments in Israel and Serbia, as well as the potential influence of U.S. political involvement in upcoming midterm and Senate races.

12 stories 15 outlets

2 stories say getting better, 1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

Poll

Should there be age limits for top elected offices?

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C CNBC· 7h

Fed officials are already saying they’ll need to get back to hiking rates

The comments from Federal Reserve Presidents Alberto Musalem and Lorie Logan offer the first morsels of insight into what leaders at the Fed see happening next.

Analysis

12 developments from 13 outlets in the past week, including 1 official source. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

12 stories 13 outlets 1 primary source

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

Discuss Full coverage · 7 →
T The Guardian· 7h

Democratic lawmakers demand ICE data on detainee miscarriages

ICE failed to record data on miscarriages suffered by immigrants in its custody between October 2025 and June 2026US lawmakers are urgently demanding that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) disclose how many pregnant immigrants have experienced miscarriages, stillbirths and pregnancy-related hospitalizations whi

Analysis

Recent reports highlight a surge in scrutiny over federal immigration enforcement, including allegations of wrongful detentions of U.S. citizens and a death at a Georgia detention facility. These developments raise significant concerns regarding civil liberties and the treatment of individuals within the immigration system, impacting both citizens and foreign nationals. Observers are now watching for potential legal challenges, including a Supreme Court case regarding detention reversals and the ongoing impact of new policies targeting international students and deportation procedures.

7 stories 7 outlets

5 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?
No large-scale program 72%
Program implemented 28%

Poll

Should long-term undocumented residents have a path to legal status?

Poll

What should immigration policy prioritise?

Discuss Full coverage · 27 →
C CNBC· 7h

Iran claims four tankers struck mines in Hormuz as strike fears grow after U.S. midterms

Iran said four tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran disputed a U.S. claim that key shipping lanes had been cleared.

Analysis

Regional diplomatic efforts are intensifying as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan hold talks with Iran to prevent further conflict, even as military tensions persist with reports of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing Houthi strikes. These developments, coupled with a U.S. Pentagon leadership shake-up and a potential diplomatic overture from the U.S. vice-president, create significant uncertainty regarding the stability of global oil shipping lanes and the risk of broader military escalation. Observers are now watching for Iran's response to the U.S. diplomatic letter and the outcome of the ongoing regional security discussions.

12 stories 13 outlets

3 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States conduct a direct military strike against Iranian territory by March 1, 2027?
No US strike occurs 72%
Yes, US strike occurs 28%

Poll

Should the US take military action if Iran moves closer to a nuclear weapon?

Poll

If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, who should keep it open?