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C CNBC· 7h

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde to step down. Here's who is tipped to replace her

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will step down on Feb. 7 next year, she announced Thursday.

Analysis

Recent reports indicate that Ebola cases have been confirmed in Nigeria and Kenya, while the ongoing outbreak in Congo has expanded to an eighth province. These developments raise significant concerns regarding regional public health preparedness and the potential for cross-border transmission of the virus. Observers are now monitoring how health ministries in affected nations manage containment efforts and border controls to prevent further spread.

12 stories 12 outlets

1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By February 28, 2027, how many countries other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo will have reported at least one laboratory-confirmed Ebola case linked to the current Congo outbreak?
One or two countries 45%
Three or four countries 35%
Five or more countries 21%

Poll

Should countries share outbreak data with the WHO even when it's politically awkward?

Poll

If a new outbreak spread widely, which measures would you support?

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C CNBC· 1d

Fed holds rates steady despite concerns over inflation

Two of the 12 Federal Open Market Committee voters dissented from the decision. Both wanted to raise rates by a quarter percentage point.

+1 more sources

Analysis

12 developments from 13 outlets in the past week, including 1 official source. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

12 stories 13 outlets 1 primary source

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

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P PBS· 19h

AP report: FDA scientists opposed the Trump administration's move to ease peptides access

A plan to give people in the United States easier access to unproven peptide drugs favored by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was opposed by most Food and Drug Administration scientific staff members, who had limited input in drafting the policy, according to six people familiar with its development.

Analysis

12 developments from 12 outlets in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

12 stories 12 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States federal government implement new restrictions on Medicare drug price negotiations or expand exemptions for drugmakers by March 31, 2027?
Status quo or expanded negotiations 61%
Expanded exemptions or restricted negotiations 39%

Poll

Should the government negotiate prices for more prescription drugs?

Poll

What is the biggest problem with healthcare where you live?

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T The Guardian· 7h

New Mexico megachurch endorses Republican candidates, testing federal ban

Legacy Church’s endorsements violate law banning tax-exempt nonprofits from endorsing political candidatesA megachurch in New Mexico has endorsed two Republican candidates running in this year’s midterms, including a Donald Trump-backed candidate running in one of the blue state’s few competitive races. The church’s en

Analysis

Recent elections in Brazil, Israel, and Serbia have produced significant political shifts, with voters in Brazil electing Lula da Silva and Serbian voters ousting their long-term leadership, while Israel faces a deadlock that leaves the future of its government uncertain. These outcomes impact the stability and direction of national policies, affecting everything from international relations to domestic legal and social issues. Observers are now watching how these nations manage the transitions of power, including the legal challenges surrounding the Bolsonaro family and the formation of new coalitions in Israel.

12 stories 13 outlets

4 stories say getting worse, 1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election scheduled for late October 2026?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43%
Other or contested 13%

Poll

Should social media platforms remove false claims about voting?

Poll

What would most improve trust in elections?

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P PBS· 1d

School principal documents Indonesia's worst wildfires in a decade

Indonesia is battling its worst wildfires in more than a decade, made worse by El Niño. Many were deliberately set to clear land for farming, including palm oil plantations. More than 12,000 schools across Indonesia have closed because of the toxic haze. Nathaniel Undas, a school principal and photographer, has been do

Analysis

Extreme weather events, including severe wildfires in Indonesia, cyclones in India, and storms in the UK and Taiwan, are causing widespread disruption to infrastructure, travel, and public health. Experts are increasingly calling for global warming to be treated as a health emergency as research highlights the escalating risks to ecosystems like coral reefs and human safety. Moving forward, observers are tracking the impact of shifting environmental policies on global emissions targets and the growing necessity for adaptation in sectors like aviation and housing.

5 stories 5 outlets ↑ Getting worse

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Where will 2026 rank among the warmest years on record for global average surface temperature, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), as reported by January 31, 2027?
Second warmest on record 41%
Third warmest or lower 39%
Warmest year on record 20%

Poll

Should new homes be banned in high flood- or fire-risk areas?

Poll

Who should pay most for climate damage?