Discuss Full coverage · 4 →
C CNBC· 2d

Americans grow more pessimistic about their finances, New York Fed finds — expert warns of ‘tough choices’ ahead

As affordability pressures mount, Americans are increasingly concerned about their financial future, the New York Fed's data shows.

Analysis

Rising mortgage rates have surpassed 7% for the first time in 20 months, further straining housing affordability for Americans already grappling with stagnant wages and high prices. While shoppers are increasingly turning to bulk retailers like Costco to manage expenses, reports of price discrepancies at major convenience chains and limited grocery access in some areas highlight ongoing challenges for household budgets. Moving forward, observers are monitoring potential policy shifts regarding energy exports and legislative efforts to increase grocery store competition.

4 stories 4 outlets

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will be the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States on January 15, 2027?
Between 6.0% and 7.0% 43%
Above 7.0% 37%
Below 6.0% 21%

Poll

Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?

Poll

Compared with a year ago, is your household better or worse off?

Discuss Full coverage · 5 →
C CNBC· 2d

Fed officials see another hike coming, but no sign as to when, minutes show

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released minutes from its Sept. 15-16 policy meeting.

Analysis

Bond yields have surged to multi-year highs as investors anticipate further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve to combat persistent inflation. This trend is directly impacting consumers by pushing mortgage rates above 7% and threatening to increase costs for other loans like auto financing. Market observers are now closely watching upcoming Federal Reserve economic projections and policy statements to gauge the duration and severity of these higher borrowing costs.

5 stories 5 outlets

1 story says getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target rate at or before the December 2026 FOMC meeting?
Target rate increases 58%
Target rate remains same or decreases 42%

Poll

What should the central bank do at its next meeting?

Poll

Are current borrowing costs stopping you from a big purchase?

Discuss Full coverage · 5 →
T The Guardian· 1d

Gulf coast residents prepare ahead of Hurricane Isaias landfall – video

Boarding up windows and filling sandbags and fuel tanks are part of routine hurricane preparation for residents of the Gulf coast. Isaias strengthened into a category 3 hurricane on Friday morning as it barreled toward the US Gulf coast, and states of emergency have been declared in Alabama, Florida and Mississippi. Is

Analysis

Extreme weather events are intensifying globally, with recent catastrophic flooding in Thailand and India causing dozens of deaths and widespread evacuations. These events, compounded by the ongoing El Niño phenomenon and rising global temperatures, are increasingly linked to severe public health risks, including heat-related mortality and pregnancy complications. Observers are now monitoring the potential for further climate-related disasters as international bodies warn of escalating risks to vulnerable regions and the Supreme Court prepares to hear a case regarding fossil fuel industry liability.

5 stories 5 outlets ↑ Getting worse

2 stories say getting worse

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the total number of confirmed fatalities from Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Nolo combined exceed 150 by December 31, 2026?
150 or fewer fatalities 58%
151 or more fatalities 42%

Poll

Who should pay most for climate damage?

Poll

Would you accept higher energy bills to cut emissions faster?

Discuss Full coverage · 4 →
C CNBC· 2d

TSMC’s September sales surge year-over-year as AI drives chip demand

TSMC's September net revenue came in at 511.86 billion New Taiwan dollars

Analysis

Major AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic are facing increased scrutiny from the FTC and calls for regulation from figures like Bill Gates, even as companies continue to release more advanced models. While President Trump has secured a voluntary safety accord with tech leaders to avoid government mandates, concerns persist regarding the potential for autonomous AI agents to cause harm and the risk of initial job displacement. Moving forward, the focus remains on whether these voluntary industry agreements will be sufficient to address safety risks or if formal government enforcement will be required.

4 stories 4 outlets

1 story says getting better

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States and China sign a formal bilateral agreement on AI safety or oversight by March 25, 2027?
No formal agreement reached 72%
Formal bilateral agreement signed 28%

Poll

How should governments regulate advanced AI?

Poll

Do you expect AI to change your job in the next five years?

Discuss Full coverage · 6 →
T The Guardian· 2d

‘Chaos and cruelty’: the kids trapped in Trump’s immigration enforcement campaign

Children are being detained in record numbers, sometimes alone and where lawyers and family cannot find themThe image of immigration officers arresting five-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos – in a blue bunny hat and Spider-Man backpack – in January sparked outrage across the country.Celebrities from Ms Rachel to Madonna call

Analysis

The US Supreme Court has cleared the Trump administration to resume deporting migrants to third countries while legal challenges continue, a policy UN experts warn is increasing risks of rights abuses and torture. Meanwhile, five EU states are advancing plans for external deportation centers in Africa, and South Africa has withdrawn an asylum directive following violent anti-migrant protests. Observers are now watching for further judicial rulings on the legality of the US third-country deportation program and the implementation of the EU's proposed offshore processing centers.

6 stories 6 outlets ↑ Getting worse

2 stories say getting worse, 1 story says mixed

Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue a ruling or stay that allows the Trump administration to proceed with third-country deportations by March 15, 2027?
Supreme Court allows deportations 85%
Deportations remain blocked or undecided 15%

Last move: Supreme Court grants emergency stay · Sep 30 ago

Poll

Should asylum claims be processed outside the country?

Forecast poll

Will the US Supreme Court issue a final ruling on the legality of third-country deportations by December 31, 2024?

Forecast · closes Jan 8
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.