Economy

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Analysis

7 developments from 7 outlets in the past week.

7 stories 7 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
4.2% to 4.5% 48%
4.1% or lower 30%
4.6% or higher 23%

Poll

What worries you more about the job market?

Forecast poll

Will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report a national unemployment rate of 4.5% or higher in a jobs report released by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Jan 16
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

How the odds moved

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

4.1% or lower 30%4.2% to 4.5% 48%4.6% or higher 23%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 22% chance
    Weekly jobless claims exceed 260,000 If it happens: ↑ 4.6% or higher ↓ 4.1% or lower
    Will it happen by Feb 5?
  • Possible · not happened 35% chance
    Job openings fall below 7 million If it happens: ↑ 4.6% or higher ↓ 4.1% or lower
    Will it happen by Feb 5?
  • Possible · not happened 15% chance
    Major tech sector layoffs exceed 50,000 in a month If it happens: ↑ 4.6% or higher ↓ 4.1% or lower
    Will it happen by Feb 5?
  • Possible · not happened 40% chance
    Monthly payroll growth exceeds 200,000 If it happens: ↑ 4.1% or lower ↓ 4.6% or higher
    Will it happen by Feb 5?

Started at 30% / 48% / 23% on Oct 19. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Feb 5, 2027

What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

4.1% or lower 30%
4.2% to 4.5% 48%
4.6% or higher 23%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

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  1. New forecast: What will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate be for January 2027, as first reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Starting odds: 4.1% or lower 30%, 4.2% to 4.5% 48%, 4.6% or higher 23%.

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What worries you more about the job market?