Economy

Interest rates and central banks

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Analysis

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady despite internal dissent and ongoing inflation concerns, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced she will step down early. These decisions influence consumer borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans, and signal potential shifts in global monetary policy. Investors are now watching for future rate adjustments from the Bank of Japan and potential policy changes following the leadership transition at the ECB.

3 stories 3 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

Poll

Should central banks be more worried about inflation or jobs right now?

Forecast poll

Will the Federal Open Market Committee lower the federal funds target range at its next meeting by October 31, 2025?

Forecast · closes Nov 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

How the odds moved

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?

Net increase 10%No net change 33%Net cut of 25 bp 30%Net cut of 50+ bp 27%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 45% chance
    Fed cuts rates in late October If it happens: ↑ Net cut of 50+ bp ↑ Net cut of 25 bp ↓ Net increase ↓ No net change
    Will it happen by Jan 31?
  • Possible · not happened 10% chance
    Fed makes a 50 bp cut If it happens: ↑ Net cut of 50+ bp ↓ Net cut of 25 bp ↓ Net increase ↓ No net change
    Will it happen by Jan 31?
  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    Monthly jobs report shows job losses If it happens: ↑ Net cut of 50+ bp ↓ No net change ↓ Net increase
    Will it happen by Jan 31?
  • Possible · not happened 35% chance
    Core PCE inflation reported at 3%+ If it happens: ↑ Net increase ↑ No net change ↓ Net cut of 50+ bp
    Will it happen by Jan 31?
  • Possible · not happened 8% chance
    10-year Treasury yield closes above 5% If it happens: ↑ Net increase ↑ No net change ↓ Net cut of 50+ bp
    Will it happen by Jan 31?

Started at 10% / 33% / 30% / 27% on Oct 18. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 31, 2027

By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027?

Net increase 10%
No net change 33%
Net cut of 25 bp 30%
Net cut of 50+ bp 27%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

Ask @zoose anything about Rates

  1. New forecast: By how much will the Federal Reserve's federal funds target range change between October 18, 2026 and January 31, 2027? Starting odds: Net increase 10%, No net change 33%, Net cut of 25 bp 30%, Net cut of 50+ bp 27%.

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