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Analysis

Recent reports highlight growing scrutiny over the treatment of detainees, including investigations into the detention of U.S. citizens and demands for data on pregnancy-related medical issues within ICE facilities. These developments are significant as public disapproval of the current administration's immigration crackdown rises, potentially impacting political campaigns and the rights of both citizens and residents. Observers should watch for further congressional inquiries into detention conditions and potential legal challenges regarding the scope of federal immigration enforcement powers.

20 stories 22 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?
No large-scale program 72%
Program implemented 28%

Poll

Should asylum claims be processed outside the country?

Forecast poll

Will the Supreme Court rule to allow judges to quickly reverse immigration detentions by January 25, 2027?

Forecast · closes Jan 30
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

How the odds moved

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?

Program implemented 28%No large-scale program 72%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 25% chance
    Executive order on denaturalization signed If it happens: ↑ Program implemented ↓ No large-scale program
    Will it happen by Mar 31?
  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    DOJ creates denaturalization task force If it happens: ↑ Program implemented ↓ No large-scale program
    Will it happen by Mar 31?
  • Possible · not happened 15% chance
    Supreme Court stays deportation orders If it happens: ↑ No large-scale program ↓ Program implemented
    Will it happen by Mar 31?
  • Possible · not happened 40% chance
    DHS reallocates funds for mass removals If it happens: ↑ Program implemented ↓ No large-scale program
    Will it happen by Mar 31?

Started at 28% / 72% on Oct 20. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Mar 31, 2027

Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027?

Program implemented 28%
No large-scale program 72%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

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  1. New forecast: Will the United States government implement a large-scale program for the denaturalization and deportation of naturalized citizens by March 31, 2027? Starting odds: Program implemented 28%, No large-scale program 72%.

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PollImmigration

Should asylum claims be processed outside the country?