Housing costs and affordability

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1 development from 1 outlet in the past week. Recent evidence leans getting worse.

1 stories 1 outlets ↑ Getting worse

1 story says getting worse

Early reports

Between 7.0% and 8.0% 50%

Below 7.0% 27%

8.0% or higher 23%

Deadline Jan 15, 2027

Should local zoning rules be loosened to allow more apartments?

What will the 30-year fixed mortgage rate be on January 15, 2027?

8.0% or higher 23%Between 7.0% and 8.0% 50%Below 7.0% 27%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

Possible · not happened 45% chance
Fed raises rates in November If it happens: ↑ 8.0% or higher ↓ Below 7.0%
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened 30% chance
Core CPI exceeds 0.4% monthly If it happens: ↑ 8.0% or higher ↓ Below 7.0%
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened 20% chance
Unemployment rate hits 4.5% If it happens: ↑ Below 7.0% ↓ Between 7.0% and 8.0% ↓ 8.0% or higher
Will it happen by Jan 15?
Possible · not happened 25% chance
10-year Treasury yield falls below 3.8% If it happens: ↑ Below 7.0% ↓ Between 7.0% and 8.0% ↓ 8.0% or higher
Will it happen by Jan 15?

Started at 23% / 50% / 27% on Sep 25. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast

Scenarios to Jan 15, 2027

8.0% or higher 23%

Between 7.0% and 8.0% 50%

Below 7.0% 27%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Ask @zoose anything about Housing

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New forecast: What will the 30-year fixed mortgage rate be on January 15, 2027? Starting odds: 8.0% or higher 23%, Between 7.0% and 8.0% 50%, Below 7.0% 27%.