Conflict

China, Taiwan and US–China tension

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Analysis

8 developments from 8 outlets in the past week.

8 stories 8 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the United States and Japan conduct a joint military exercise within Taiwan's territorial waters or airspace by April 1, 2027?
No joint exercise occurs 72%
Yes, joint exercise occurs 28%

Poll

Should the US move chip and electronics supply chains away from China and Taiwan?

Forecast poll

Will the US Commerce Department add at least five Chinese entities to its Entity List by 2025-12-31?

Forecast · closes Dec 18
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

How the odds moved

Will the United States and Japan conduct a joint military exercise within Taiwan's territorial waters or airspace by April 1, 2027?

Yes, joint exercise occurs 28%No joint exercise occurs 72%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 45% chance
    China conducts 'encirclement' drills If it happens: ↑ Yes, joint exercise occurs ↓ No joint exercise occurs
    Will it happen by Apr 1?
  • Possible · not happened 25% chance
    Taiwan formally invites US-Japan observers If it happens: ↑ Yes, joint exercise occurs ↓ No joint exercise occurs
    Will it happen by Apr 1?
  • Possible · not happened 60% chance
    US-Japan statement on Taiwan security If it happens: ↑ Yes, joint exercise occurs
    Will it happen by Apr 1?

Started at 28% / 72% on Oct 24. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Apr 1, 2027

Will the United States and Japan conduct a joint military exercise within Taiwan's territorial waters or airspace by April 1, 2027?

Yes, joint exercise occurs 28%
No joint exercise occurs 72%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

Ask @zoose anything about China–Taiwan

  1. New forecast: Will the United States and Japan conduct a joint military exercise within Taiwan's territorial waters or airspace by April 1, 2027? Starting odds: Yes, joint exercise occurs 28%, No joint exercise occurs 72%.

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PollChina–Taiwan

Should the US move chip and electronics supply chains away from China and Taiwan?