Conflict

Gaza war and ceasefire

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Analysis

Tensions in the West Bank have escalated following a series of settler attacks on Palestinians and a US journalist, prompting Israeli authorities to arrest several suspects while imposing a military lockdown after a deadly shooting near Hebron. Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is deepening as the World Food Programme warns that funding shortages will cut off food aid for 500,000 people. Observers are monitoring how these security and humanitarian developments, alongside ongoing anti-government protests, will impact the upcoming Israeli national elections.

4 stories 4 outlets
Reported by several outlets

Forecast

Will the Gaza ceasefire that took effect in October 2025 be officially declared over by Israel, Hamas, or the US government by March 31, 2027?
No, ceasefire not declared over 55%
Yes, ceasefire declared over 45%

Last move: Hamas attack kills Israeli soldiers · Oct 27 ago

Poll

What should come first in Gaza?

Poll

Should countries attach conditions to military aid in this war?

How the odds moved

Will the Gaza ceasefire that took effect in October 2025 be officially declared over by Israel, Hamas, or the US government by March 31, 2027?

Yes, ceasefire declared over 45%No, ceasefire not declared over 55%
Hamas attack kills Israeli soldiers
Oct 18 Today · deadline Mar 31, 2027

  1. Yes, ceasefire declared over +16 pts → 45%

    Because: Hamas attack kills Israeli soldiers

    Israel locks down occupied West Bank after Hebron shooting · Al Jazeera

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

Confirmed in the news

Could still happen

  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    Israeli strikes kill 50+ in one day If it happens: ↑ Yes, ceasefire declared over
    Will it happen by Mar 31?
  • Possible · not happened 20% chance
    Hamas agrees to weapons handover If it happens: ↓ Yes, ceasefire declared over
    Will it happen by Mar 31?
  • Possible · not happened 35% chance
    Stabilization force troops deploy in Gaza If it happens: ↓ Yes, ceasefire declared over
    Will it happen by Mar 31?
  • Possible · not happened 15% chance
    Israel halts all aid entry If it happens: ↑ Yes, ceasefire declared over ↓ No, ceasefire not declared over
    Will it happen by Mar 31?

Started at 29% / 71% on Oct 18. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Mar 31, 2027

Will the Gaza ceasefire that took effect in October 2025 be officially declared over by Israel, Hamas, or the US government by March 31, 2027?

Yes, ceasefire declared over 45%
No, ceasefire not declared over 55%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

Ask @zoose anything about Gaza

  1. New forecast: Will the Gaza ceasefire that took effect in October 2025 be officially declared over by Israel, Hamas, or the US government by March 31, 2027? Starting odds: Yes, ceasefire declared over 29%, No, ceasefire not declared over 71%.

  2. Odds moved: Yes, ceasefire declared over 29% → 45%. Because: Hamas attack kills Israeli soldiers.

    Israel locks down occupied West Bank after Hebron shooting

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